The NHL’s most valuable contracts are determined by comparing a player’s projected Net Rating against their current annual salary, according to analysis by Sean McIndoe and Jonas Siegel. By evaluating future performance rather than past achievements, the data identifies elite players, including Lane Hutson and Jake Sanderson, who provide significant surplus value relative to the league’s rising salary cap.
The Rising Value of Elite Defensemen
Lane Hutson of the Montreal Canadiens tops the list with an estimated $100 million or so in surplus value over his eight-year, $8.9 million AAV contract. According to McIndoe and Siegel, Hutson’s performance trajectory—benchmarked against players like Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes—suggests he could eventually warrant 16 to 18 percent of the total salary cap.
Similarly, Ottawa’s Jake Sanderson provides a projected surplus value. Despite missing 15 games due to injury last season, his two-way impact at age 24 mirrors the development of established stars like Miro Heiskanen and Alex Pietrangelo. His six-year, $8.1 million deal is increasingly viewed as a bargain for a player performing at a top-pair level.
Did you know?
The model used to grade these contracts excludes players currently on Long-Term Injured Reserve (LTIR) and ignores individual bonus structures or specific contract clauses to maintain consistency across the league.
Goaltending Efficiency and Market Realities
Goalie contracts are notoriously volatile, yet Logan Thompson of the Washington Capitals currently holds the best-valued deal at the position. According to the data, Thompson leads all NHL goalies in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) over the past two seasons. At a $5.9 million AAV, his production creates a wide chasm between his current cost and his on-ice impact.
The Calgary Flames’ Dustin Wolf also appears on the list, despite a sophomore season that saw him outplayed by his backup. His inclusion rests on his youth—at 25, he has not yet reached his prime—and the expectation that he will evolve into a high-volume, consistent starter. The analysis notes that as the salary cap grows, a $7.5 million AAV will soon represent the standard rate for an average starting goaltender, making Wolf’s long-term deal a potential efficiency play.
Strategic Signings in the Modern Cap Era
Teams that secure young talent early often see the greatest returns as the salary cap climbs. Brandon Hagel’s six-year, $6.5 million contract with Tampa Bay remains a standout, with his production pace nearing 85 points without consistent time on the top power-play unit. His value is tied to his role as an elite two-way driver at five-on-five.
Likewise, the Carolina Hurricanes’ commitment to Jackson Blake—signed to an eight-year, $5.1 million deal—highlights the benefit of long-term security. Blake’s breakout performance during the Stanley Cup playoffs, where he recorded 20 points in 19 games, suggests he will provide significant surplus value as he enters his prime.
Top 10 Ranked Contracts by Surplus Value
- Lane Hutson (MTL): $100M or so surplus
- Jake Sanderson (OTT): $57M surplus
- Brandon Hagel (TBL): $44M surplus
- Logan Thompson (WSH): $42M surplus
- Jackson Blake (CAR): $43M surplus
- Moritz Seider (DET): $41M surplus
- Seth Jarvis (CAR): $40M surplus
- Dustin Wolf (CGY): $40M surplus
- Rasmus Dahlin (BUF): $37M surplus
- Jack Hughes (NJD): $34M surplus
Pro Tip:
When evaluating player value, look beyond raw point totals. Play-drivers like Seth Jarvis, who offer elite defensive metrics without being high-volume scorers, often provide the most stability for a team’s salary cap structure.
FAQ
How is “surplus value” calculated for these contracts?
Surplus value is determined by comparing a player’s projected Net Rating and the expected salary associated with that performance level against their actual contract AAV over the life of the deal.
Why are shorter contracts, like Jack Hughes’, ranked lower?
While Hughes remains one of the league’s top centers, his contract’s shorter remaining term limits the total surplus value he can provide compared to players signed for six to eight years.
Are bonus structures considered in these rankings?
No. The assessment focuses on future on-ice value and salary cap hit, specifically ignoring individual bonus structures or specific contract clauses.
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