The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has issued an alert for widespread rainfall across Pakistan effective from today through Friday. The weather event is expected to bring isolated heavy falls to Gilgit-Baltistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Balochistan, and Punjab, potentially causing rapid river rises, flash flooding, and urban inundation in vulnerable districts.
Flash Flooding Risks in Mountainous and Hill Torrent Regions
According to the NDMA alert, specific regions face a heightened risk of flash flooding due to the forecasted rainfall. These areas include Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In Balochistan, certain areas are also identified as high-risk zones. Within Punjab, the authority has specifically flagged the Mianwali district, as well as the hill torrents located in DG Khan and Rajanpur, as areas requiring vigilance against rapid flash floods and seasonal stream overflows.
Urban Flooding Vulnerabilities and Affected Districts
The NDMA has identified several urban centers where heavy rainfall may lead to flooding. In Punjab, the districts at risk include Rawalpindi, Jhelum, Faisalabad, Mianwali, Khushab, Gujrat, Gujranwala, Sialkot, and Narowal. Similarly, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the alert highlights Peshawar, Nowshera, Charsadda, and Mardan as districts susceptible to urban flooding.
River Flow Projections and Flood Levels
Data provided in the alert indicates significant changes in river flow levels across various basins. High flood levels are projected for the Chenab River at Marala, while the Jhelum River upstream of Mangla is expected to reach medium flood levels. The NDMA notes that medium to high flood levels are also anticipated in the nullahs associated with the Jhelum and Chenab basins.
Regarding other water bodies, the River Ravi at Balloki may reach a low flood level within the next 24 to 48 hours. Meanwhile, rising flows are expected in the Swat, Panjkora, and Chitral rivers. The Kabul River and its associated tributaries are also forecast to experience low to medium flood levels as the widespread rainfall persists through the end of the week.