Russia is quietly laying the groundwork for a potential new mobilization campaign while publicly insisting its wartime economy remains stable despite severe fuel shortages and rising inflation, according to a recent assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Recent legislative changes and proposed internal security expansions suggest Moscow is preparing both to ramp up troop recruitment and to manage domestic unrest if an official mobilization order is issued.
Legislative Changes Target New Recruits and Internal Security
According to the Washington-based think tank, the Russian State Duma approved legislation on July 22, 2026. This law allows individuals with active criminal records—including those convicted of drug trafficking and organized crime—to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defence during periods of official mobilization. Deputy Defense Minister Viktor Goremykin stated that the measure will significantly widen the pool of eligible recruits and bolster military manning efforts for the war in Ukraine.
Simultaneously, the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) proposed amendments to expand its civil defense powers. These changes allow the agency to protect the public from unspecified “dangers” during mobilization, martial law, or wartime. These legal adjustments follow a November 2025 decree signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin allowing reservists to deploy to combat zones without a formal mobilization announcement, a move analysts previously viewed as an attempt to avoid political fallout.
Putin Claims Economic Stability Amid Refining Deficits
While the Kremlin expands its wartime authorities, Putin maintains that the national economy is holding firm. Speaking at a government meeting on July 22, 2026, Putin asserted that the Russian economy remains stable despite what he described as external attempts to destabilize the fuel and energy sector via long-range Ukrainian strikes. He characterized the market disruptions as temporary and maintained they would not derail broader economic indicators.
Putin reported that Russia’s GDP grew by 0.3% in May and 0.2% over the first five months of 2026. He also claimed the federal budget recorded a surplus of 196 billion rubles in June, alongside a 13% year-on-year increase in the money supply as of July 1. However, this optimistic outlook contrasts sharply with independent data highlighting deep structural strains.
Did you know? According to estimates from Bloomberg, Ukraine has targeted at least 24 of Russia’s 34 major oil refineries across roughly 50 attacks in a 100-day span, severely impacting national fuel production.
ISW and Industry Data Highlight Growing Economic Pressures
The ISW notes that economic strain is mounting across multiple sectors. The Russian food producers’ association Rusprodsoyuz reported that the cost of a basic monthly food basket increased by 7.9% since the start of 2026. Meanwhile, state business daily Kommersant, citing analytics firm Platts, reported that Russian refineries fulfilled less than 19% of gasoline purchase requests, pointing to structural rather than temporary shortfalls.
Prolonged Ukrainian drone campaigns against Russian energy infrastructure have driven refinery output down by more than 60% to its lowest level since 2005, according to Energy Aspects. These cuts have forced nationwide fuel rationing, export bans on gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel, and discussions regarding potential fuel imports from India and Kazakhstan.
Frontline Troops Feel the Pinch of Fuel Shortages
The refining crisis is actively disrupting supply lines for Russian forces on the front lines. Several service members reported that fuel shortages have cut deliveries by roughly 30%, impacting combat vehicles, ammunition trucks, and supply transports. A soldier stationed in the Zaporizhzhia sector stated his unit now receives only 10 to 15 liters of gasoline instead of the standard 20, forcing troops to walk 11 kilometers on foot to retrieve water and food.
Volunteers and Russian military bloggers have acknowledged the expanding crisis, noting that poor fuel quality and severe rationing complicate humanitarian deliveries. Despite these reports, official government messaging continues to downplay the severity of the infrastructure damage.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Russia considering a new mobilization campaign?
According to the ISW, recent legislative changes—such as recruiting individuals with active criminal records and expanding Rosgvardia’s domestic security powers—indicate the Kremlin is preparing the legal and domestic framework required for an official mobilization.
How have Ukrainian strikes impacted Russia’s economy?
A continuous campaign targeting oil refineries has reduced Russian refining output by over 60%, leading to domestic fuel rationing, export bans, a 7.9% rise in basic food basket costs, and severe supply shortages for frontline troops.
What official economic figures has Moscow released?
President Vladimir Putin reported a 0.2% GDP growth for the first five months of 2026, a federal budget surplus of 196 billion rubles in June, and a 13% year-on-year increase in the money supply.
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