According to data published by the Ukrainian Ministry of Justice and cited by the Kyiv Independent, Ukraine recorded 495,090 deaths in 2024, a figure nearly three times higher than the number of births as the country’s multi-decade population decline accelerates under Russian invasion.
Ukraine Demographic Crisis: War Accelerates Decades of Population Decline
Ukraine faces a dual crisis of long-term population decline spanning over 30 years, drastically worsened by the ongoing Russian invasion. Oleksander Gladun of the Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine notes that the country’s situation is uniquely severe. According to Gladun, wartime mortality rises due to worsening chronic illnesses, high stress, and limited access to timely medical care, while birth rates plummet as citizens postpone starting families.
Data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Justice reported by the Kyiv Independent shows deaths outpacing births by nearly three times in 2024. Gladun explains that the population has been falling since 1993, with the war accelerating this process. The ultimate pace of this decline depends on the year and conditions under which the war ends.
Ukrainian Refugees Abroad and Government Return Policies
Data from the Kyiv-based Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) indicates that 5.6 million Ukrainians were living abroad as refugees at the start of the year, with four million having crossed western borders. Gladun adds that over four million internally displaced persons bring the total of displaced citizens to more than 10 million people, representing roughly 20% of the pre-war population.
The Ukrainian government adjusted cross-border rules in late August 2025, liberalizing movement for men aged 18 to 22 and permitting men aged 23 and older living abroad to return temporarily. Previously, martial law enacted in 2022 prohibited men between 18 and 60 from leaving. Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko stated that the aim is to maintain ties with Ukraine, though CES data shows approximately 96,000 men still emigrated between August and November 2025.
Moldova Depopulation Crisis and Diaspora Voting
Moldova shares a parallel demographic emergency, ranking among the fastest-depopulating countries in the world after decades of mass emigration. Vitalie Sprînceană, a Moldovan sociologist and journalist, points out that rural depopulation is so severe that finding enough villagers to dig graves has become difficult. In 1991, Moldova’s population was nearly 4.5 million, but today fewer than three million people remain inside the country, according to regional reporting.
The European Union opened accession negotiations with Moldova in December 2023, pushing Chisinau to adopt rapid reforms with the goal of concluding a treaty by 2030. Sociologist and migration expert Alexandr Makuhin notes that between 2020 and 2025, the country lost more than 200,000 people. While government programs attempt to lure citizens back using cultural nostalgia, experts like Makuhin emphasize that economic support is the most effective way to get the diaspora to return.
Did You Know?
According to a survey cited by Oleksander Gladun, 25% more people would return to Ukraine if the war ended within the 1991 borders than if it ended along the current front line.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many refugees have left Ukraine?
According to the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), 5.6 million Ukrainian refugees were living abroad at the start of the year, alongside more than four million internally displaced persons inside the country.
What is temporary protection for Ukrainians in the EU?
Introduced in March 2022, temporary protection is a special EU status allowing Ukrainian refugees to study, work, and access healthcare systems across member states. The status is currently scheduled to expire in March 2027.
Why is Moldova’s population declining?
Moldova has faced mass emigration since the 1990s following severe economic crises, followed by additional waves in 2014 after visa-free travel to the EU was introduced. Today, roughly one-in-four Moldovans live abroad.
How many people could return to Ukraine after the war?
The Centre for Economic Strategy estimates that between 1.3 and 2.2 million people could return to Ukraine post-war, depending on the scenario, including factors such as security conditions, housing availability, and employment opportunities.
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