Climate change is projected to increase malaria exposure in cooler regions of Africa by the end of the century, with cases potentially rising by 20 per cent in coastal southern Africa. According to a study published in Nature, rising temperatures will expand the range of malaria-carrying mosquitoes into previously cooler highlands and southern territories by 2050.
Rising Temperature Shifts Malaria Zones in Africa
The Nature study indicates that by 2050, the geographic range of malaria-carrying mosquitoes will shift. This expansion is expected to increase cases by about 5 per cent in the East African highlands, specifically impacting parts of Ethiopia and Kenya. Similar increases are projected for Angola, Zambia, and eastern South Africa.
While cooler zones face new risks, some of the continent’s hottest regions may see a decline. Transmission is projected to fall by about 5 per cent in countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Nigeria. In certain parts of the Sahel, researchers suggest conditions could become too hot for mosquitoes to survive, which might eliminate the disease in those specific areas.
Did you know? Malaria killed an estimated 579,000 people in Africa in 2024. The World Health Organization reports that about three-quarters of those deaths were children under five.
Vulnerabilities in South Africa and the East African Highlands
Christopher Trisos, director of the Climate Risk Lab at the University of Cape Town and a co-author of the study, identified three north-eastern provinces in South Africa as the most vulnerable. He noted that a higher number of children in these areas are now at risk of contracting the disease.
Trisos stated that South Africa and its global health partners must prepare local malaria control and health systems immediately to address this growing risk. The shift represents a significant challenge for regions that previously had lower transmission rates due to cooler climates.
The Complexity of Continental Health Planning
Romaric Odoulami, a researcher at the African Climate and Development Initiative and study co-author, explained that the influence of climate change on childhood malaria risk is not uniform across Africa. This variance complicates adaptation and health planning for governments and NGOs across the continent.
The Impact of Global Warming Limits on Disease Spread
The researchers emphasize that these projected increases are not inevitable. The study found that limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius would prevent approximately five additional malaria cases per 1,000 children in southern Africa.
Even greater benefits would be seen in the East African highlands if temperature rises are capped. However, the study concludes that cutting emissions alone is insufficient; these efforts must be paired with stronger malaria surveillance and control, particularly in eastern and southern Africa where there is less historical experience in tackling the disease.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which African regions will see an increase in malaria?
According to the Nature study, coastal southern Africa, the East African highlands (including Kenya and Ethiopia), Angola, Zambia, and eastern South Africa are expected to see increases.
Will malaria disappear from any part of Africa?
The study suggests that in parts of the Sahel, temperatures may become too high for mosquitoes to survive, potentially eliminating the disease in those specific areas.
How does limiting global warming affect malaria rates?
Limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius would prevent about five additional cases per 1,000 children in southern Africa and provide even more significant benefits in the East African highlands.
How should global health priorities shift to meet these climate challenges? Share your thoughts in the comments or subscribe to our newsletter for more data-driven reporting on climate health.
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