A spent SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage, identified as object 2025-010D, is projected to collide with the Moon’s surface at 3:35 a.m. Brasília time on Wednesday, January 5. The four-ton rocket component, which has been drifting in space for over 18 months, poses no risk to Earth, according to scientific monitoring reports. The impact provides a unique opportunity for researchers to study a lunar crater with precisely known parameters, including mass, velocity, and trajectory.
Origin and Mission of the Falcon 9 Upper Stage
The rocket stage was launched in January 2025 as part of the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program, an initiative led by NASA to support the Artemis lunar exploration strategy. The mission successfully deployed two commercial lunar modules: the Blue Ghost, developed by Firefly Aerospace, and the Resilience, created by the Japanese company Ispace.
Unlike the first stage of the Falcon 9, which is designed to return to Earth for reuse, the upper stage remains in space after releasing its payload. Because this specific stage lacked the necessary fuel to return to Earth or adjust its orbit, it drifted until lunar gravity pulled it toward the surface. The object measures more than 12 meters in length and weighs approximately four tons.
Scientific Value of the Lunar Impact
Researchers are characterizing the impending collision as a valuable scientific event because the object’s physical properties are fully documented. Unlike random meteoroid strikes, which occur with unknown variables, the 2025-010D impact allows scientists to compare the resulting crater against existing theoretical models of lunar formation.
By analyzing the data from this known impact, the scientific community aims to refine their understanding of how lunar surface features evolve. Orbital probes currently circling the Moon are expected to monitor the site to analyze the new crater once the dust settles.
Observing the Collision from Earth
While the impact is a significant event for orbital mechanics, witnessing the moment of collision from Earth presents challenges. Experts note that the impact will occur near the edge of the visible lunar disk in a region already illuminated by the Sun, making the resulting flash difficult to detect with standard equipment.
The best viewing conditions for those attempting to track the event are located in South America and the mid-latitudes of North America, where nighttime darkness provides the optimal contrast. Despite the difficulty of visual observation, the event will be tracked by various scientific organizations to verify the impact coordinates.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Does the rocket impact pose any danger to the Moon or Earth?
No. According to NASA and associated monitoring groups, the impact poses zero risk to Earth. The Moon is frequently struck by natural meteoroids, and this low-velocity, man-made impact is not expected to have any negative effects on the lunar environment.
Can I watch the collision through a telescope?
Observing the exact moment of impact is highly unlikely for amateur astronomers. The collision site is located in a sunlit area near the edge of the Moon’s visible disc, making the flash nearly impossible to distinguish from the lunar surface glare.
Why was the rocket stage left in space?
This is standard procedure for the upper stage of a Falcon 9 after it completes its primary mission of delivering a payload to space. The stage does not carry enough fuel to return to Earth and is typically left to follow its orbital path until it eventually re-enters an atmosphere or impacts a celestial body.
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