Muratov: Putin Can No Longer Claim Victory in Ukraine

Dmitry Muratov Rejects Putin’s Victory Narrative

Nearly five years into the ongoing hostilities, Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to predict ultimate success for his armed forces. According to Muratov, however, any outcome of the current conflict can no longer be defined as a victory.

“There will never be ‘victory’,” Muratov states, noting that two Slavic nations have subjected more than a million people to severe devastation. He adds that while Ukraine can theoretically be destroyed through relentless escalation—including potential nuclear weapons use—it cannot be truly conquered by Moscow.

Nuclear Weapons Discourse in Russian State Media

Addressing speculation over whether the Kremlin would deploy nuclear arms, Muratov dismisses political analysts who claim to read Putin’s mind as “charlatans” comparable to astrologers. Instead, the journalist relies on observable media patterns and big data analysis.

According to Muratov’s tracking, the necessity of utilizing nuclear weapons has been mentioned more than 500 times since the beginning of the year. While fringe commentators are easily ignored, Muratov points out that the subject has been openly discussed on state television and highlighted favorably by speakers at the state-run St Petersburg International Economic Forum.

Erosion of Domestic Security and Elite Control

When launching the mass invasion of February 2022, Putin publicly justified the offensive as a measure to guarantee Russian security. Muratov questions that premise directly, pointing to recent domestic vulnerabilities.

“Tell me, has security increased?” Muratov asks, citing Ukrainian drone strikes targeting warehouses belonging to Wildberries—Russia’s largest online retailer—alongside petrol shortages, disruptions to mobile internet access, and a growing population of political prisoners.

Despite declining domestic approval ratings registered in various opinion polls, Muratov maintains that Putin exercises power over the country. He rejects theories suggesting a split among the ruling elite or clandestine conspiracies, asserting instead that the entire apparatus is governed by fear, with the Federal Security Service (FSB) rigorously reinforcing state authority.

Assessing Western Leverage and Domestic Repression

Muratov holds few illusions regarding the posture of Western governments toward Moscow. He claims that Putin remains acutely aware of the pragmatic hypocrisy of European leaders who publicly preach human rights while simultaneously engaging in lucrative trade agreements involving oil, gas, and diamonds.

Despite facing severe personal restrictions under Russia’s “foreign agent” designation—which bars him from teaching or accessing assets from property sales—Muratov shifts focus away from his own predicament. His primary concern remains the fate of compatriots currently imprisoned simply for being among the first to speak out against the military land grab in Ukraine.