Law and Justice (PiS) is facing its largest internal crisis to date, with over 40 parliamentarians leaving the party to join a new formation, Rozwój Plus, led by former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. According to Dr. Andrzej Anusz, this split is significantly larger in scale than previous departures, such as those of Zbigniew Ziobro or the founders of PJN, as it involves a former prime minister who served for six years and a former PiS vice-president.
Did You Know? Jaroslaw Kaczyński has experienced a similar split before; in the early 1990s, a dozen members left his Porozumienie Centrum (PC) party, which then consisted of over 40 MPs.
Kaczyński’s leadership and the end of right-wing hegemony
For nearly 25 years, PiS acted as the hegemon of the Polish right, but Dr. Anusz states that this era has ended. The emergence of Konfederacja, Korona Polska, and Rozwój Plus means the rule that “to the right of PiS there is only a wall” no longer applies.
Jarosław Kaczyński is now focused on securing his own party, which he views as the essential vehicle for achieving state power. According to Anusz, Kaczyński initiated the process of pushing Morawiecki and his allies out after realizing Morawiecki posed a real threat to his leadership of the party.
The role of President Karol Nawrocki in right-wing unity
PiS is increasingly relying on President Karol Nawrocki to integrate the right-wing camp. Dr. Anusz notes that Kaczyński has turned to the president for patronage over a right-wing alliance before parliamentary elections because PiS can no longer organize the right on its own.
Nawrocki, who has been a politician for just over a year, is viewed by the right as a hope for returning to power and creating a right-wing government. This dependency highlights the diminished influence of PiS as a sole leader.
Expert Insight: The shift from party-led hegemony to president-led integration suggests a strategic pivot. By leveraging a figure like Nawrocki, Kaczyński may be attempting to maintain influence over a fragmented right wing without having to compromise his absolute control over the PiS internal machinery.
Potential for future cooperation and electoral strategies
Despite accusations of betrayal and collaboration with Donald Tusk leveled against Morawiecki by PiS leaders and the Republic party, cooperation remains possible. Dr. Anusz suggests that a common enemy—Donald Tusk—could drive Kaczyński to work with the “splitters” to overthrow the current government.
Regarding future elections, Anusz believes a coalition with Grzegorz Braun is unlikely for the Sejm, though a coalition for the Senate remains possible. Such a move would be beneficial for President Nawrocki, as the Senate approves referendum requests.
Morawiecki’s path with Rozwój Plus
Mateusz Morawiecki is now building a new environment and party from the ground up. He has claimed that “loyalists” within PiS sought to take over the party’s resources and infrastructure after Kaczyński.
Analysts suggest Rozwój Plus could potentially attract voters from the former Third Way who prefer Morawiecki’s governance over Tusk’s. If the party can secure 8-10% in polls over the next six months, Morawiecki may run independently; otherwise, he may face a difficult political path that could end in a return to PiS.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Mateusz Morawiecki leave PiS?
According to the source, Kaczyński viewed Morawiecki as a threat to his leadership after Morawiecki suggested that having influence over the party is necessary to be prime minister. This led to a process of pushing Morawiecki and his associates out of the party.
How does this split compare to previous ones in PiS history?
Dr. Andrzej Anusz describes this as the largest crisis in PiS history, noting that over 40 parliamentarians are leaving out of nearly 200, which is a much larger scale than the departures of Zbigniew Ziobro or the creation of PJN.
Will Jarosław Kaczyński collaborate with Grzegorz Braun?
While Kaczyński has excluded a coalition with Braun for the Sejm lists, Dr. Anusz believes a coalition for the Senate is possible due to its importance for the president’s legislative goals.
Do you think a fragmented right wing is more or less likely to return to power than a single hegemon party?
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