U.S. stock futures edged higher on Tuesday, recovering slightly after a volatile session driven by oil market shifts, high-stakes technology earnings from Nvidia, and upcoming Federal Reserve signals. Investors are closely monitoring key inflation data and Treasury yield movements ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium.
Stock Futures Rebound Following Volatile Monday Session
U.S. stock futures pointed to a modestly higher opening on Tuesday, with Wall Street looking to recover after the major indices finished a volatile Monday session slightly lower. Sentiment improved as crude oil prices retreated substantially from their earlier highs. U.S. crude futures were still up around 0.4% after having surged as much as 3% earlier amid uncertainty surrounding negotiations over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the positive indication from futures, trading could remain cautious ahead of important U.S. inflation figures scheduled for later this week.
Earlier, U.S. stock markets experienced a broad decline, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling about 1.18%, the S&P 500 sinking 0.92%, and the Nasdaq retreating roughly 0.84%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures slipped on Monday as investors prepared for a pivotal week marked by the prospect of fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, and quarterly results by AI bellwether Nvidia. The U.S. is prepared to roll out economic sanctions targeting Iran’s trade partners, in what it called the greatest financial offensive ever
, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent scheduled to hold a press conference in the U.S. afternoon. Still, oil prices fell over $1 a barrel as investors booked profits ahead of the announcement. Treasury yields higher, with the 30-year yield touching new levels.
Nvidia Earnings and Chip Sector Volatility Keep Markets on Edge
The futures market reflected investor anticipation and tentative positioning as they awaited Nvidia’s highly anticipated earnings report, set to be released after market hours on Wednesday. The report is expected to provide key insights into the sustainability of demand for AI chips, a focal point for a market fed by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. During morning trading, the S&P 500 fell 0.27% to 7,653.60, the Nasdaq dropped 0.63% to 26,015.94, while the Dow added 0.21% to 53,389.19.
Declining technology shares outweighed gains across several other parts of the stock market. Nvidia lost about 2.4%, putting the stock on course for a seventh straight daily decline. Micron and Marvell each fell more than 6%, while Sandisk dropped about 10.6%, and the S&P 500 technology sector lost 1.1%. Nvidia will report its results after Wednesday’s closing bell, providing new figures on demand for artificial intelligence chips and data-center equipment. Investors have closely tracked whether corporate AI spending can support valuations across semiconductor shares. Asian technology markets were also weak, as Hong Kong-listed Alibaba fell after the company began a $10.2 billion share sale to finance artificial intelligence investment, South Korea’s Kospi lost 3.1%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.9%, extending prior losses.
Inflation Reports and Federal Reserve Policy Expectations
The Labor Department is due to publish consumer inflation data on Wednesday, followed by producer inflation figures on Thursday. The reports have taken on greater significance following Friday’s unexpected decline in U.S. employment, with investors assessing what the combination of labour-market and inflation data means for monetary policy. Stock futures inched up as investors’ focus shifted to inflation data following July’s payrolls report, which came in weaker than expected on Friday. The market is awaiting Wednesday’s CPI print, which could be an important factor in whether or not the Federal Reserve raises rates next month. Economists expect it will show consumer prices up 3.4% from a year earlier, a slight improvement from the 3.5% inflation rate in June.
"The prevailing narrative is that inflation remains damningly high… A benign CPI report and no September rate hike would give this market permission to run faster," Edwards Asset Management said. Money markets currently price around a 44% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, according to LSEG data.
Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Market Fluctuations
Oil prices were edging higher, with Brent crude futures trading around $84 a barrel, as investors await major updates from the war with Iran. Iran said it was close to a deal with Oman to open the Strait of Hormuz, though a senior official issued several disclaimers regarding the final implementation. A crucial earnings week awaits markets, where results from chipmakers including Nvidia and Marvell Technologies are expected. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is expected to speak at the central bank’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
U.S. Treasury yields moved lower after reports that the Treasury could tap its nearly $1 trillion General Account to help fund an expanded government bond buyback program. Additionally, a slew of economic releases, including July’s PCE index, consumer confidence index, and the second estimate for the second-quarter 2026 GDP, are expected this week. U.S. stock futures were mixed in the overnight session late Monday as investors await results from Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) and July’s personal consumption expenditures inflation data later this week, which is considered a key metric for the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is expected to speak at the central bank’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
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