According to the Hong Kong Observatory, severe weather struck the region as an active southerly airstream brought strong gusts, heavy rain, and squally thunderstorms. The Observatory issued a yellow rainstorm warning at 6:45 p.m., recording intense wind gusts of approximately 80 kilometers per hour in Tai O. Multiple global meteorological organizations are now predicting the arrival of a super El Niño, prompting environmental groups to warn that Hong Kong’s autumn temperatures could surge to a record-breaking 27 degrees Celsius or higher.
Current Weather Disruptions and Tropical Cyclone 沙德爾
An active southerly airstream is driving persistent showers and squally thunderstorms across the Guangdong coast, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. Morning rainfall has been particularly heavy before gradually easing later in the day, with temperatures hovering between 27 and 31 degrees Celsius.
Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone 沙德爾 is approaching the coastal areas of Fujian and Zhejiang. Outer subsidence from the storm will bring increasingly hot weather to South China later in the week. The Hong Kong Observatory forecasts that maximum temperatures could reach 33 degrees Celsius on Friday and Saturday. 沙德爾 is expected to move inland and gradually weaken over the weekend, though a broad trough of low pressure will keep the weather over the coastal areas of Guangdong unstable into the following week.
Did you know?
During the last two super El Niño events, Hong Kong’s autumn average temperatures rose significantly compared to the preceding five-year averages, according to Green Power data.
Super El Niño Forecast Points to Record Autumn Heat
Global meteorological organizations indicate that a super El Niño is imminent, signaling an autumn completely devoid of typical cooler seasonal weather. Intensity reaching 2.0 degrees Celsius or higher qualifies as a "super El Niño," with the two most recent occurrences recorded in 1997/1998 and 2015/2016.
Data analyzed by Green Power shows that during both super El Niño periods, Hong Kong’s autumn average temperatures from September to November exceeded the averages of the preceding five years. The autumn of 1998 recorded an average temperature of 25.7 degrees Celsius, which was 0.7 degrees higher than the previous five-year average. By 2015, that average climbed to 26.1 degrees Celsius, sitting 0.9 degrees above the baseline.
Historical Autumn Temperature Comparison
- 1998 Autumn Average: 25.7°C (0.7°C higher than the preceding 5-year average)
- 2015 Autumn Average: 26.1°C (0.9°C higher than the preceding 5-year average)
- 2021–2025 Average: Reached 26.3°C, with 2025 recording 19 hot weather days and 20 tropical nights.
Back-to-School Weather and Public Health Warnings
Many primary and secondary students are scheduled to start the new school year on Tuesday, September 1. The Hong Kong Observatory predicts generally cloudy conditions with a few showers and localized thunderstorms, advising citizens to carry rain gear before heading out to school.
Beyond immediate rainfall, the steady rise in local temperatures demands heightened preparedness. Specifically, the autumn of 2025 logged 19 hot weather days and 20 tropical nights, both setting historical records. Based on historical warming trends during super El Niño years, this year's autumn average temperature could climb by another 1 degree compared to the past five years, hitting a record 27 degrees Celsius or higher. Green Power is urging the government and the public to prepare early for the health and safety risks associated with prolonged high temperatures.
Frequently Asked Questions
What caused the heavy rain and thunderstorms in Hong Kong?
An active southerly airstream brought unstable weather to the region, triggering a yellow rainstorm warning and wind gusts of up to 80 kilometers per hour in Tai O, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
How will Tropical Cyclone 沙德爾 affect local weather?
Outer subsidence from Tropical Cyclone 沙德爾 will cause South China’s weather to turn increasingly hot later in the week, with maximum temperatures reaching 33 degrees Celsius on Friday and Saturday, as reported by the Observatory.
What is the temperature forecast for the start of the school year?
Tuesday, September 1, is expected to be generally cloudy with a few showers and localized thunderstorms, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
Why are autumn temperatures expected to break records this year?
Global meteorological organizations are predicting a super El Niño. Green Power analysis indicates that past super El Niño events have driven autumn temperatures up by nearly 1 degree Celsius, potentially pushing this season’s average to 27 degrees Celsius or higher.
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