According to a study published by Texas Tech University researchers Kevin Grier and Robin Grier, India’s per-capita income would have been $1,000 higher in 2023 if the country had stuck with its ‘business as usual’ approach until 2014. Titled ‘Promises, Promises: Governance and Growth in India under Modi and the BJP’, the research evaluates a decade of Bharatiya Janata Party rule against synthetic counterfactuals to measure economic performance and ten critical governance indicators.
Economic Performance and Per-Capita Income Shortfalls
Economic performance under the current administration falls short when measured against the baseline of prior trajectories, according to the Texas Tech University study. Researchers Kevin Grier, from the Department of Political Science, and Robin Grier, from the Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, utilized real per-capita GDP data to analyze what India’s economy would look like absent the Modi government.
The findings indicate that real per-capita income lagged behind the synthetic counterfactual, resulting in a $1,000 deficit per person by 2023. While supporters often view the administration’s tenure through the lens of growth, the study argues that the economic reality trails the potential output established by previous governance models.
Decline in Ten Critical Governance Indicators
Beyond economic metrics, the study evaluates ten core governance indicators and finds significant worsening across all of them. According to the research, half of these indicators show a deterioration of over 45% compared to the counterfactual scenarios.
- Political corruption
- Democracy (polyarchy)
- Liberal democracy
- Freedom of expression
- Freedom of religion
- Freedom of association
- Equality before the law
- Equal protection under the law
- Judicial constraints on the executive
- Legislative constraints on the executive
The authors note that freedom of religion experienced the steepest decline among the metrics examined. Furthermore, political corruption increased significantly since 2014, a finding the authors describe as notable given that the prime minister campaigned extensively on reducing corruption.
Did you know? Higher values on the political corruption index used in the study denote more corruption. The authors emphasize that this upward trend runs counter to the administration’s core campaign promises from 2014.
Democracy, Freedoms, and the Strongman Bargain
The study frames the political landscape around four possible routes the government could have taken in 2014, asking whether campaign promises were met or if India made a “strongman bargain.” According to the findings, liberal democracy, freedom of religion, freedom of expression, and equality before the law fell significantly.
The report highlights that the increase in political corruption is accompanied by a sharp reduction in freedom of expression. The authors write that “Modi’s rule is, at heart, a tale of broken promises,” comparing actual outcomes over roughly a decade with the assurances given prior to taking office.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who authored the study on India under Modi?
The research was conducted by Kevin Grier of the Department of Political Science and Robin Grier of the Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics at Texas Tech University.
What is the title of the research paper?
The study is titled ‘Promises, Promises: Governance and Growth in India under Modi and the BJP’.
How much lower was India’s per-capita income in 2023 according to the findings?
The study found that India’s per-capita income would have been $1,000 higher in 2023 if the country had stuck with its ‘business as usual’ approach until 2014.
Which governance indicator suffered the steepest decline?
According to the researchers, freedom of religion marked the steepest decline among the ten critical governance indicators examined.
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