One Nation candidate Luke Herdegen leads Labor’s Georgia Tree 57-42 after preferences with 74.5% of the vote counted in the Secret Harbour state byelection in Western Australia, according to verified election reporting. The milestone contest was triggered following the midterm retirement of senior Labor minister Paul Papalia, who held the seat and its predecessors from 2007 until he resigned in July.
Following the early counts, Barnaby Joyce declared to News24 that “politics has changed,” asserting that his party’s actual support surpasses online polling figures. Joyce stated that voters are seeking a more dynamic political market with increased competition, noting that a significant number of former Labor voters are finding it easy to transition to One Nation. One Nation’s WA leader Rod Caddies claimed victory at 9:30pm local time, telling supporters that the outcome signals there are no longer any safe Labor seats across the state or the country.
Political Reactions and Major Party Fallout
Federal and state figures from the major parties responded quickly to the unfolding results in the outer-suburban mortgage-belt electorate south of Perth. Federal cabinet minister Pat Conroy told News24 that it was a tough day for WA Labor, though he remained hesitant to draw broad national lessons from a single state byelection. WA Premier Roger Cook acknowledged ahead of the count that holding the electorate would prove challenging, stating that defeat would break his heart.
Meanwhile, the Liberal party ran a distant third with a primary vote of 17%. Federal Liberal frontbencher Jonno Duniam conceded to News24 that the outcome was poor and required hard review to win back lost trust. Duniam criticized earlier remarks from WA Liberal leader Basil Zempilas—who had suggested a One Nation victory could still count as a win for the Liberals—arguing that his party must focus on earning votes directly rather than discussing concessions or alliances before running the race.
Voter Concerns and Campaign Dynamics
Voters across Secret Harbour pointed to cost-of-living pressures, housing and a perceived lack of community amenities as their primary concerns. Local voter Luke Pors told reporters that he trusted One Nation to handle those challenges better than Labor or the Liberals, while also praising Herdegen’s campaign style. Party leader Pauline Hanson warned on social media that One Nation would target further Labor-held seats, framing her party as a serious alternative to the major political parties.
Did You Know? The Secret Harbour byelection ballot featured a record field of 16 candidates, following a history created in the 2023 redistribution out of the abolished Labor stronghold of Warnbro.
Expert Insight: State and federal byelection results often act as a barometer for voter dissatisfaction with incumbent governments, particularly around cost-of-living and housing pressures in outer-suburban electorates. While major parties frequently debate whether to extrapolate local swings to national politics, a significant primary vote shift directly impacts how opposition and crossbench parties strategize for upcoming general electoral cycles.
Frequently Asked Questions
What triggered the Secret Harbour byelection?
The byelection was called after senior Labor minister Paul Papalia quit the seat in July.
How did the Liberal party perform in the vote?
The Liberal party ran a distant third in the byelection, clocking a primary vote of 17%.
What were the primary concerns for voters in the electorate?
Voters in Secret Harbour prioritized cost-of-living pressures, housing, and a perceived lack of community amenities.
How are cost-of-living pressures and local infrastructure issues influencing voter loyalty in your local community?