Energy experts and legal scholars immediately questioned the deal’s opacity, regulatory framework, and long-term execution.
A sweeping bilateral oil pact announced by U.S. The agreement grants the United States control over an estimated 65 billion barrels of recoverable oil across 17 strategic fields, surpassing total U.S. proved reserves of 46 billion barrels. While interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez confirmed the arrangement, the lack of competitive bidding and opaque terms have left specialists demanding contract transparency.
Legal Ambiguities and Institutional Risks
Legal experts have questioned the mechanisms behind the transaction, noting that the United States rather than Venezuela has taken the lead in selecting operating companies and defining structural models.
“If the goal was to try to reduce the risk of investing in Venezuela, the United States might be doing the exact opposite with this transaction: further weakening the country’s already fragile institutional framework,”
Luisa Palacios, adjunct senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, via Reuters
Additional concerns focus on potential future litigation. Juan Carlos Apitz, head of the law faculty at the Central University of Venezuela, warned that the agreement can be brought to court in the future despite formal recognition by Washington. Analysts also note that projected tax revenues appear lower than statutory mandates under the nation’s Hydrocarbons Law.
Financial Projections and Production Realities
According to figures provided by the interim government, the 25-year accord is designed to secure 100 billion dollars in private investment alongside 209.3 billion dollars in royalties and taxes. This financial structure would leave approximately 19 dollars in Venezuelan hands per barrel produced. However, economists point out that reviving the heavily degraded petroleum infrastructure will require extensive time.
Production has ticked upward by 29.8% since January, reaching 1.2 million barrels per day, but specialists emphasize that recovering legacy output levels will be a gradual process. Petroleum engineer Oswaldo Felizzola estimated that production increases will take three to four years to materialize, while full exhaustion of the designated reserves is expected to span more than a quarter-century.
Key Architects and Corporate Players
Behind the political announcement sits a complex network of officials and business figures. According to information publicized by journalist Javier Negre, key participants in the diplomatic and commercial exchanges include U.S. State Department official Caleb Orr, who previously met with a Venezuelan diplomatic delegation in Washington as part of early bilateral contacts.
On the corporate and administrative side, newly appointed Minister of Hidrocarburos Paula Henao holds key oversight responsibilities after ascending to her post in March 2026. Alongside her, Jovanny Martínez Navarro, executive vice president of state oil company PDVSA, has led industry briefings highlighting that the state has maintained a steady pace of contracting while courting international partners since January 2026.
Public Skepticism and Strategic Petroleum Reserves
Among the Venezuelan populace, the accord elicits a mixture of cautious hope for economic relief and deep suspicion regarding state secrecy. With a minimum monthly wage lagging far behind the cost of basic household goods, citizens voiced anxiety over whether the multi-billion-dollar arrangement will tangibly improve daily living standards.
“No sabemos a quién va a favorecer eso, si es a Venezuela o a ellos (Estados Unidos),”
Jesús Salazar, un trabajador de seguridad privada de 68 años de edad
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