Ecological forecasts predicting lobster abundance, landings, and habitat shifts must account for the social contexts of fishers and coastal communities to be effective, according to a new paper published in the journal FACETS. Advanced data and algorithms have expanded marine projections, but historical memories—such as Maine fishers surviving dire collapse warnings in the 1970s and 1980s—shape how modern forecasts are received and acted upon.
Why Ocean Forecasting Is Both Scientific and Social
Ocean projections do not exist in a vacuum. According to Nick Record, senior research scientist and director of the Tandy Center for Ocean Forecasting, people’s reactions to forecasts matter just as much as the data behind them. Record serves as lead author on the new study examining the history of lobster outlooks.
To understand how forecasts evolved and prompted action, the research team analyzed news archives, historical landing data, oceanographic records, and archival quotes capturing industry responses. Their analysis reveals that communication strategies must integrate historical and sociocultural contexts. This proves vital when forecasts inform crucial economic choices, including boat investments, fishing effort adjustments, and pricing.
Pairing Social Data with Marine Science
The Tandy Center for Ocean Forecasting recently took ownership of the National Ocean Economics Program (NOEP). The program supplies accessible social and economic data regarding marine resources and ocean health. Researchers point to this study as a prime example of pairing social data with scientific information to clarify ecosystem changes for coastal communities.
According to researchers, acknowledging past industry experiences with ecological predictions is essential for effective communication between scientists and harvesters.
“If we want to understand the ocean’s future, we have to understand its past, both in terms of the oceanographic and socioeconomic dynamics,” Record stated. Alongside Record, the research project features Research Associate Johnathan Evanilla, Senior Research Scientist Maya Groner, and academic partners from the University of Maine and the University of Victoria.
Frequently Asked Questions
What data did the researchers examine in the study?
The research team evaluated news archives, historical landing statistics, oceanographic data, and archival quotes detailing industry responses to past outlooks.
Who led the research on lobster forecasting history?
Nick Record, senior research scientist and director of the Tandy Center for Ocean Forecasting, served as the lead author of the study published in FACETS.
Which institutions partnered on the study?
Researchers from the University of Maine and the University of Victoria collaborated on the study.