Global crude prices head toward their steepest weekly gains since mid-July, driven by intensifying U.S.-Iran hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz. Benchmark Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures climbed sharply on Friday, September 4, 2026, as supply risks mounted during the seventh month of the ongoing conflict.
Oil prices climbed on Friday, heading for their steepest weekly gain since mid-July as rising tension and renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities heightened concerns over Middle East supply risks. Brent crude futures rose 54 cents, or 0.6%, to $96.06 a barrel by 0100 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 80 cents, or 0.9%, to $92.10, according to reporting by Reuters.
U.S.-Iran Clashes and Strait of Hormuz Shipping Restrictions
The latest upward pressure on commodities follows a violent week of engagement. U.S. attacks that killed and wounded dozens, including Iranian civilians, marked the fiercest clashes between the two nations since July. The broader conflict began with U.S.-Israeli strikes in late February and is now in its seventh month. Meanwhile, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz renewed warnings that Israel would “cripple” Iran’s military and civilian infrastructure, including energy facilities.
As maritime security deteriorates, transit through the vital waterway faces strict new hurdles. Iran expanded its list of vessels deemed non-compliant and subject to fines, confiscation, or detention if they attempt to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Iraqi ships remain among the few vessels Tehran has cleared to transit safely.
Vice President JD Vance stated that Washington does not plan to hold talks with Iran unless Tehran stops attacking commercial shipping in the strait.
Iraqi Export Shifts and Market Adaptation Pressures
Even as transit restrictions tighten, regional export adjustments are altering flow volumes. Iraq increased its oil exports to approximately 2.34 million barrels per day in August, up from about 1.35 million barrels per day in July, according to two Iraqi energy officials who spoke on Wednesday. September exports are also expected to increase as heavy discounts and Iranian approvals for Iraqi tankers encourage buyers.
Market analysts warn that inventory buffers are wearing thin. Analysts at ANZ raised their Brent crude forecast on Friday to $95 a barrel in the short term, noting upside risk if the Middle East conflict intensifies further. The market is entering a delicate adaptation phase,
the analysts said, adding that Elevated inventories helped absorb the initial supply crisis, but the challenge is now to keep the market balanced as those buffers diminish.
Broader Geopolitical Pressures and Peace Settlement Talks
While Middle Eastern supply risks drive the core rally, external diplomatic signals have occasionally capped oil’s advance. Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters that there remained a path to a deal to end the war in Ukraine, adding that both the United States and China were prepared to support a peace settlement.
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