Political analyst Sandile Swana predicts that the African National Congress could see its electoral support fall to around 30 percent over the next two decades, with its future survival in government increasingly dependent on coalition arrangements, according to recent commentary from Johannesburg.
Historical Decline and Coalition Governance
Swana traces the ruling party’s downward trajectory back to 2006. During that year, the ANC lost control of the City of Cape Town to the Democratic Alliance. That electoral outcome marked a significant shift in local governance across the country.
“The ANC got about 37% in Cape Town and the DA got about 41% and took the metro permanently away from the ANC for the past 20 years,” Swana said. Following that loss, the DA eventually took control of the entire Western Cape province.
“So the decline has been there, and it’s decisive; they are going down,” Swana noted. He emphasized that while the party will remain a major political player, maintaining power will require coalition partnerships.
Did You Know? Political analyst Sandile Swana traces the beginning of the ANC’s structural decline to 2006, when the party lost control of the City of Cape Town to the DA with 37 percent of the vote compared to the DA’s 41 percent.
Electoral Court Challenge Over Candidate Deadlines
As the party navigates these long-term political shifts, it faces an immediate legal battle with the Independent Electoral Commission. On Friday, 4 September, the ANC filed legal papers with the Electoral Court in Bloemfontein challenging the IEC candidate nominations deadline.
A total of 181 ANC candidates in the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, and Free State have been affected by the dispute. ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula defended the court challenge, stating that the party’s candidate names had been submitted “timeously and validly.”
Mbalula maintained that a technical glitch was responsible for the failure to meet the IEC deadline. He also defended the decision to approach the courts, stating that the legal action is not an attempt to seek preferential treatment over candidate lists.
Expert Insight: Legal and electoral challenges regarding administrative deadlines highlight the administrative friction political organizations face ahead of major votes. As analysts note that future governance relies heavily on coalitions, strict adherence to institutional rules becomes critical for maintaining ballot access and public trust.
Rebuilding Public Confidence Through Delivery
To reverse its electoral slide and secure future support, Swana argued that the party must radically alter its approach to governance. Public trust can only be restored through consistent and competent service delivery.
“There is no other option,” Swana said regarding the necessity of competent administration for the party’s survival.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did political analyst Sandile Swana predict about the ANC’s future?
Swana predicted that the ANC’s share of the vote could fall to around 30 percent over the next 20 years and that its survival in government will depend on coalitions.
Why did the ANC file papers with the Electoral Court in Bloemfontein?
The party filed papers on Friday, 4 September, to challenge the Independent Electoral Commission’s candidate nominations deadline after a technical issue affected 181 candidates in the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, and Free State.
What is the ANC’s explanation for missing the IEC deadline?
ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula stated that the party’s candidate names were submitted timeously and validly, attributing the failure to meet the deadline to a technical glitch rather than a request for preferential treatment.
How will shifting voter trends and coalition dynamics impact the future of governance in South Africa?