The United States military has incurred at least $38 billion in combat costs against Iran, according to a non-partisan Congressional Budget Office analysis requested by Democratic Representative Brendan Boyle. The military campaign has consumed between one-half and two-thirds of the U.S. inventory of missile-defense interceptors, leaving stocks so depleted that rebuilding them could take at least five years even with increased production.
Munition Expenditures and Inventory Shortfalls
Munitions have driven the bulk of the Pentagon’s expenses during the conflict. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the military spent $21.7 billion on munitions alone through June 30, with total spending reaching $33.4 billion, a figure echoed by a separate Defense Department inspector general review. The Congressional Budget Office noted that interceptors accounted for $13.1 billion of the $21.7 billion needed to replace expended weapons. Land-attack cruise missiles cost another $7.3 billion, while other munitions totaled $1.2 billion.
Independent analyses from the Center for Strategic and International Studies indicate the U.S. has expended about 65% of its pre-war Patriot missile inventory, leaving fewer than 1,000 interceptors remaining. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense inventories have declined by roughly 38%, leaving an estimated 234 to 278 interceptors. Analysts Mark Cancian and Chris Park warned in their assessment that these shortages create significant readiness risks if another high-intensity conflict breaks out before stocks return to normal levels.
Did you know? Replacing interceptors takes years due to complex manufacturing timelines. According to defense experts, missiles funded in current defense contracts often require three to five years before delivery to the military.
Broader Economic Impact and Inflation
Beyond direct military hardware expenses, the conflict has fueled economic pressures. The Congressional Budget Office reported that the war drove up inflation by half a percentage point compared to previous estimates. Brent crude oil prices surged from $64 a barrel before the fighting to $103 at their peak due to disruptions of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, short-term interest rates are running about 0.2 points higher than they otherwise would have been.
The economic fallout arrives less than two months before midterm elections, posing political challenges for Republicans. The White House requested $87.6 billion in supplemental funding in June, with $67.1 billion earmarked for the Department of Defense. Out of that request, $42.3 billion ties directly to the Iran conflict, including funding for classified programs that the budget office could not examine.
Strategic Risks in the Indo-Pacific
The rapid depletion of missile defenses creates acute risks for other potential theaters of operation. The Congressional Budget Office warned that the interceptor shortage would prove especially problematic in a hypothetical clash over Taiwan. China maintains a large and expanding arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles, meaning any conflict in the region would require far more interceptors, deployed far more quickly, than the campaign against Iran.
Despite the findings of the budget office and defense analysts, administration officials have pushed back against reports of severe shortages. In a White House statement, Donald Trump maintained that the U.S. has far more munitions than anyone else in the world and far more than needed. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also dismissed previous media reports detailing depleted stockpiles as inaccurate.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much has the war in Iran cost the United States?
The Congressional Budget Office estimates the war has cost the U.S. at least $38 billion through early August, with costs continuing to rise by roughly $2 billion to $3 billion for every month the conflict proceeds at a low intensity.
Which missile defense systems are most depleted?
The conflict has consumed between one-half and two-thirds of the U.S. inventory of Patriot, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), Standard Missile-3 (SM-3), and Standard Missile-6 (SM-6) interceptors.
How long will it take to rebuild U.S. missile stockpiles?
According to the Congressional Budget Office, replenishing the depleted inventory of missile-defense interceptors will take at least five years, even if manufacturing production rates are increased.
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