Nearly half of the wild-caught fish harvested globally could be used to produce feed for farmed aquaculture products by 2040, according to a report published Sept. 4 by the U.K.-based NGO the Changing Markets Foundation.
Aquaculture Expansion Scenarios and Wild Fish Demand
Produced alongside researchers at the University of British Columbia, the Changing Markets report evaluates three distinct trajectories for the global aquaculture industry. These scenarios examine how meeting a 75% growth milestone—suggested in a 2023 roadmap by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to support the U.N.’s zero-hunger target—would impact wild fisheries based on species selection.
If industry expansion focuses heavily on carnivorous species like salmon, shrimp, sea bream, and sea bass, demand for wild-caught fish to produce aquaculture feed could surge from current levels to between 34% and 46% of the global total, according to the report. Around 20% of global wild-caught fish is currently used for fishmeal and fish oil, with two-thirds of that supply going directly to fish farms.
Conversely, if growth is steered toward species that require little to no marine feed, such as carp and shellfish, the demand for wild-caught fish would drop to a range of 13% to 17%. Under a business-as-usual trajectory following current market trends, that demand would claim 29% to 38% of global catches.
Did you know? Aquaculture is currently the fastest-growing food industry in the world and since 2022, it has accounted for half of the global seafood supply.
FAO Disavows 75 Percent Milestone at Rome COFI Meeting
The report’s release coincided with the opening of the 37th meeting of the FAO Committee on Fisheries (COFI), held Sept. 7–11 at FAO headquarters in Rome. The biennial intergovernmental meeting brings global policymakers together to set the direction for developing fisheries and aquaculture sectors globally.
Manuel Barange, assistant director-general of the FAO and director of its fisheries and aquaculture division, pushed back against the figures tied to the 2023 roadmap during discussions in Rome. “It’s not a target, it’s not a proposal of FAO,” Barange told Mongabay. “It’s purely a discussion on options on the table.”
Barange clarified that the official FAO target aims for a 35% expansion in sustainable aquaculture by 2030 compared to 2020 levels, a goal established in the 2022 “Blue Transformation” roadmap. Pointing out that the sector already grew 17% between 2020 and 2024, Barange argued that the 35% figure simply reflects the trends the sector is following. He also predicted that the overall volume of marine ingredients used in feed will not grow during this period due to efficiency gains and alternative feed development.
Clashing Priorities Between Industrial Farms and Small-Scale Fisheries
The policy debate at COFI37 also highlighted deep friction between the FAO and artisanal fishing communities. In an official position statement, small-scale fisheries delegates condemned industrial aquaculture as destructive.
“When we came here, we saw and realized that there is no space for small-scale fisheries in the future, it’s only aquaculture,” Herman Kumara, the Sri Lanka spokesperson for the Uganda-headquartered World Forum of Fish Harvesters and Fish Workers, told Mongabay. Kumara stated that governments frequently back aquaculture over local needs because of higher profit margins.
The Changing Markets report similarly criticized the FAO Guidelines for Sustainable Aquaculture, adopted by COFI members during the 2024 meeting, arguing that final versions stripped out crucial safeguards regarding competition between food to feed people and food to feed fish. Tara Ganesh, a senior campaigner at Changing Markets, noted that impacts vary dramatically depending on the farmed species.
Defending the regulatory framework, Kristina Sigurdsdottir Hansen, state secretary at the Norwegian Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Fisheries, rejected allegations that Norway influenced the drafting process to favor salmon farming interests. Hansen stated that Norwegian funding supports independent development cooperation rather than business-oriented research.
Laura Elsler, a researcher at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and co-author of a study on the nutritional impact of aquaculture, noted that aquaculture has a very large contribution to global nutritional security. However, Elsler acknowledged that Changing Markets’ calls for better regulation of the sector remain reasonable given the nutritional risks facing some developing nations that contribute the fishmeal used in aquaculture.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Changing Markets Foundation report about?
The report outlines different expansion scenarios for the global aquaculture industry up to 2040 and projects how varying rates of carnivorous fish farming will impact the demand for wild-caught fish used as feed.
What is the FAO’s official target for aquaculture growth?
According to FAO assistant director-general Manuel Barange, the official goal is a 35% increase in sustainable aquaculture by 2030 compared to 2020 benchmarks, rather than a previously discussed 75% milestone.
Why are small-scale fishers concerned about aquaculture growth?
Representatives from small-scale fishing organizations argue that industrial aquaculture takes fish and livelihoods away from local communities, especially in low-income countries, to feed fish destined for consumption in wealthier nations.
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