Russia Plans to Manufacture 28,000 More Drones, Documents Reveal

Satellite Imagery Supports Expansion Plans at Alabuga-Volokno

Satellite photos released by the USCC from May and July show a cleared plot of land sitting directly beside the existing Alabuga-Volokno facility. David Albright, founder and president of the Institute for Science and International Security, independently acquired August imagery showing that workers are actively laying the foundations for the new plant. According to project timelines reviewed by Politico, construction is scheduled for completion in 2027, though Albright cautions that meeting this deadline demands a rapid building pace ahead of the full 2029 production target.

Production Capacity and Projected Drone Increases

Internal business, project, and construction files indicate that the Tatarstan site aims to lift output to remove bottlenecks in Russia’s unmanned aerial vehicle programs. David Albright estimates that the extra 500 tons of carbon fiber—an extremely strong and lightweight material vital for crafting Geran attack drone frameworks derived from Iranian Shahed designs—could yield approximately 28,000 extra units annually. Ukrainian estimates currently place Russia’s baseline production at more than 36,000 Geran drones per year, meaning full integration of the new carbon fiber output could theoretically push total annual manufacturing past 64,000 units. However, Albright notes that this figure remains a projection based on material volume, meaning actual output will ultimately depend on supplies of motors, electronics, and assembly components.

Sanctions and Supply Chain Routes from China

Both Alabuga-Volokno and its parent company UMATEX—a subsidiary of Rosatom’s advanced materials division—operate under economic sanctions imposed by the United States, the United Kingdom, and other Western allies. Despite these restrictions, the facility previously secured raw inputs from international suppliers. Investigative findings from September revealed that Chinese state-owned Jilin Chemical Fiber Group shipped 46 tons of chemical precursor materials necessary for carbon fiber manufacturing to the plant under a civil customs declaration. Industry analysts calculate that a shipment of that scale provides enough material to build components for roughly 1,300 attack drones. Rosatom previously stated that its subsidiaries act in accordance with applicable laws and regulations, though the corporation declined to comment on the latest expansion documents.

Strategic Impact on Ukraine and European Security

Russian forces rely on massed drone strikes to target Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure, depleting air defense stockpiles by forcing defenders to expend interceptors. Stacie Pettyjohn, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), told Politico that unmanned systems give Moscow an effective tool for deep-strike campaigns and defense-saturation tactics. Beyond sheer volume, Russian forces are also scaling up speed; Reuters reported on September 15 that jet-powered drone deployments jumped roughly sixfold over three summer months, climbing from about 450 units in June to approximately 2,850 in August, with some models exceeding 400 kilometers per hour. Serhij Kuzan, head of the USCC, warned that the expansion of Alabuga represents a long-term challenge to the security of all Europe rather than a localized front-line issue. Meanwhile, Nicholas Fenton of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) noted that these industrial investments advance alongside Moscow’s stated openness to diplomatic talks, underscoring ongoing hybrid military operations.