With zero recorded hurricanes so far, researchers note it is the slowest start to a hurricane season in over a century.
Why El Niño is Halting Atlantic Hurricanes
While the Atlantic basin sees an unprecedented pause in activity, the Pacific Ocean experiences intense tropical development. Nadia Bloemendaal, a hurricane expert at the KNMI, notes that the current El Niño is unusually powerful, bringing water temperatures near record levels months ahead of its typical peak in December.
The atmospheric mechanics behind this suppression involve strong vertical wind shear over the Atlantic. According to Bloemendaal, wind shear acts as a disruptive force that immediately tears apart developing weather systems before they can organize. At the same time, sinking air currents over the Atlantic further inhibit the vertical lift required to fuel tropical storms.
Did You Know?
If the Atlantic basin records zero hurricanes through the end of the season on November 30, it will mark the first time since the 1960s—when satellite monitoring began—that a full season passed without a single hurricane.
Pacific Activity Smashes Records
While the Atlantic stays dormant, the Eastern Pacific is seeing a surge in extreme weather. On September 3, European satellites operated by Copernicus captured three simultaneous hurricanes active in the Pacific for the first time since 2015. Among them, tropical storm Polo intensified rapidly off the coast of Mexico into a very heavy hurricane.
Polo stands as the third extremely heavy hurricane in the Pacific this year, tying regional records. El Niño alters standard steering currents, causing these systems to shift toward new regions, as seen when hurricane Dujuan struck Japan.
The Precedent of Warm Atlantic Waters
Despite the strong inhibiting forces of El Niño, scientists warn that conditions can change quickly before the official season closes on November 30. A parallel occurred in 2023, when an active El Niño year defied initial projections by producing a busy Atlantic hurricane season. Bloemendaal points out that exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures provided enough raw energy to overpower the atmospheric wind shear and sinking air currents.
While Atlantic waters remain warm this year, they have not yet matched the extreme thermal energy recorded in 2023. Researchers continue monitoring the tropics closely.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does the Atlantic hurricane season end?
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through November 30.
How does El Niño suppress Atlantic storms?
El Niño creates strong wind shear and sinking air currents over the Atlantic Ocean, which tear apart developing weather systems and prevent necessary air lift.
Has an Atlantic hurricane season ever recorded zero hurricanes?
Since reliable satellite monitoring began in the 1960s, every tracked season has recorded at least one hurricane. Prior to satellite deployment, observational limitations left gaps in open-ocean storm tracking.
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