Schwerin – The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is approaching the 40 percent mark in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with a recent poll indicating 37 percent support. This follows similar gains in Sachsen-Anhalt, where the AfD currently holds 39 percent. Both states will hold new elections this year.
Rising Support for AfD
According to the Forsa poll commissioned by the “Ostsee-Zeitung,” the AfD would turn into the strongest force in the northeastern state with 37 percent of the vote. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Minister President Manuela Schwesig (51) currently stands at 23 percent, while the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has 13 percent and the Left Party 11 percent. The Greens (4 percent) and the Free Democratic Party (2 percent) would likely fail to secure representation, while the BSW is at 5 percent.
Potential Government Instability
The current polling suggests a challenging path to forming a government. A continuation of the current Red-Red coalition (SPD and Left Party) is no longer viable. Political scientist Wolfgang Muno (57, University of Rostock) suggests that a coalition of the SPD, the Left Party, and the CDU would be the only option to achieve a majority.
However, Muno as well stated that a CDU and AfD coalition is unlikely, arguing that it would build the CDU a “junior partner and stepping stone for extremism.”
AfD top candidate Leif-Erik Holm (55) expressed confidence, stating, “It’s heading towards a single-party government.”
Minister President Schwesig views the latest poll results positively, stating, “The numbers indicate what we saw in January. The SPD’s values have risen slightly compared to last year. That’s going in the right direction.” The CDU described the results as a “snapshot,” while the Left Party warned of the AfD as a “danger to democracy.”
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current level of support for the AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?
According to a recent Forsa poll, the AfD has 37 percent support in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
What is the current level of support for the SPD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?
The SPD, led by Minister President Manuela Schwesig, currently has 23 percent support.
What are the potential coalition options following the election?
According to political scientist Wolfgang Muno, a coalition of the SPD, the Left Party, and the CDU would be the only option to achieve a majority, though he notes the CDU would be hesitant to partner with the AfD.
As Mecklenburg-Vorpommern approaches its state elections on September 20th, what impact will these shifting political dynamics have on the future governance of the region?
