The pro-Israel group AIPAC secured victories in Illinois Democratic House races on Tuesday night.
AIPAC’s Illinois Strategy
Despite a declining reputation within the Democratic party, AIPAC demonstrated its continued ability to leverage significant campaign spending. The group spent millions across four Illinois House races, often through political action committees (PACs) with names like Elect Chicago Women and Chicago Progressive Partnership.
In some instances, these affiliated groups targeted pro-Palestinian progressives by questioning their progressive credentials and, in one case, even supporting a lesser-known left-wing candidate. According to one centrist House Democrat, “I think it’s fair to say that Illinois made AIPAC the comeback kid.”
Key Race Outcomes
Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller defeated former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. And state Sen. Robert Peters in the 2nd congressional district. Nearly $4.5 million in ad spending from AIPAC-affiliated Affordable Chicago Now supported Miller’s campaign. This seat became open after Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) ran for U.S. Senate, but lost to Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton.
Former Rep. Melissa Bean won the race in the 8th congressional district against Junaid Ahmed to succeed Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.). Elect Chicago Women spent $3.3 million supporting Bean, even as Chicago Progressive Partnership spent $700,000 portraying Ahmed as aligned with Elon Musk and fossil fuel interests. Bean also received support from ads funded by Crypto and AI PACs.
However, AIPAC did not succeed in all races. It fell short in the 9th district, where state Sen. Laura Fine came in third behind Kat Abughazaleh and Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss. AIPAC also failed to secure a win in the 7th district, where La Shawn Ford defeated AIPAC-backed Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin.
Recent Setbacks and Re-evaluation
This outcome represents a reversal of fortunes for AIPAC, which experienced defeats in New Jersey and California in recent cycles. In New Jersey, AIPAC spent over $2 million supporting Tahesha Way, which inadvertently aided the victory of Analilia Mejía, a pro-Palestinian candidate. Similarly, Rep. Dave Min (D-Calif.) defeated a candidate AIPAC opposed. Reps. Maxine Dexter (D-Ore.) and Valerie Foushee (D-N.C.), previously supported by AIPAC, have since publicly disagreed with the organization on issues related to Israel.
AIPAC is attempting to present a positive narrative, celebrating the loss of more progressive candidates like Abughazaleh and framing the results as a win for mainstream progressives. However, some progressives dispute this interpretation, arguing that AIPAC’s spending ultimately harmed its preferred candidates.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was AIPAC’s total spending in Illinois?
AIPAC-affiliated groups spent millions in Illinois primaries, including at least $1.9 million reserved by the United Democracy Project to support Melissa Conyears-Ervin and $4.5 million spent by Affordable Chicago Now to support Donna Miller.
How did AIPAC attempt to influence the races?
AIPAC largely disguised its spending through PACs like Elect Chicago Women and Chicago Progressive Partnership. These groups ran ads targeting candidates and, in some cases, boosted lesser-known candidates to divide the progressive vote.
What was the outcome of the race to replace Jan Schakowsky?
AIPAC-backed state Sen. Laura Fine came in third in the race to replace retiring Rep. Jan Schakowsky, losing to Kat Abughazaleh and Daniel Biss.
How will these recent outcomes shape AIPAC’s strategy in future elections?
