Portugal’s Presidential Runoff: A Shift in the Political Landscape
António José Seguro, the Socialist candidate, secured a decisive victory in Portugal’s presidential runoff election, garnering approximately 66% of the vote against André Ventura, leader of the far-right Chega party, who received 34% with 95% of the votes counted. Despite a severe storm, Marta, which forced the postponement of voting in three municipalities, participation reached 49%, twelve percentage points lower than the first round held on January 18th.
Ventura’s Rise and the Normalization of the Far-Right
Even as acknowledging the weather’s impact, Ventura refrained from offering excuses, stating, “I don’t seek excuses, that is the result and I fully assume it: the country needs politicians who grab responsibility.” Seguro benefited from support beyond the Socialist electorate, including voters from the traditional right-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), following their candidate’s poor performance in the first round. The PSD’s Prime Minister, Luís Montenegro, did not personally endorse Seguro.
Political analyst Héctor Sánchez Margalef notes a “pseudo cordon sanitaire” formed, with mainstream parties rallying behind Seguro. A key factor in Seguro’s win was his positioning as a president for all Portuguese citizens, contrasting with Ventura’s stated intention to use the presidency as a platform for opposition to the government. The outcome signals a normalization of radical right-wing populism within the Portuguese political system.
A Landslide Victory Built on Moderation
Politologist José Palmeira described the election dynamics as a case of Ventura enabling “maximum polarization,” while Seguro, as a “candidate of moderation,” attracted a broader range of voters. It would be inaccurate to view the result as a defeat for the far-right, however. Ventura’s success in reaching the second round – the first since 1986 – serves as a legitimizing force for his project.
Seguro’s campaign centered on a narrative of moderation and defending the democratic framework, while Ventura presented himself as a victim of a “cancel culture” and claimed the “system” was working against him. The election was less a competition between left and right and more a dispute between moderation, and disruption.
Chega’s Trajectory: From Fringe to Force
Seguro will succeed Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, who has served as president for the past ten years, and will be the first Socialist president of Portugal in two decades. The runoff has revealed a country increasingly divided between institutional order and anti-system sentiment. The result marks the normalization of radical right-wing populism in Portugal.
Since the 2019 legislative elections, Chega – meaning “enough” in Portuguese – has disrupted the political landscape. Founded months before those elections, the party propelled Ventura to prominence, securing an initial 1.29% of the vote and one seat in parliament. Chega’s rhetoric is often described as aggressive, promising to combat corruption, immigration, and what it terms “cultural Marxism,” and likewise targeting the Roma community, who have a strong presence in Portugal.
Initially viewed as an anomaly, Chega has experienced rapid growth, increasing its vote share from 12% in 2021 to 20% in the May 2025 legislative elections, now holding 60 seats out of 230. This trajectory challenges the democratic tradition established after Portugal’s Carnation Revolution of April 25, 1974, and reflects a broader crisis in political discourse seen across Europe.
Looking Ahead: Portugal’s Political Future
The rise of Chega mirrors similar trends observed in other European countries, such as France’s National Rally led by Marine Le Pen, which despite losing presidential runoffs in 2017 and 2022, continues to shape French politics. Ventura’s performance, while ultimately unsuccessful, demonstrates the growing appeal of populist and nationalist ideologies within Portugal.
FAQ
Q: What percentage of the vote did António José Seguro receive?
A: Approximately 66%.
Q: What is Chega’s political ideology?
A: Chega is a far-right political party with a nationalist and populist platform.
Q: What impact did the weather have on the election?
A: The storm Marta forced the postponement of voting in three municipalities, but Ventura did not attribute his loss to the weather.
Q: Is this a significant result for the far-right in Portugal?
A: Yes, reaching the second round is a significant achievement for Chega and indicates a growing influence of the far-right in Portuguese politics.
Did you recognize? What we have is the first Portuguese presidential runoff election since 1986.
Pro Tip: Understanding the historical context of Portugal’s Carnation Revolution is crucial to understanding the current political shifts.
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