Apple’s Vision Pro Stumbles: Is the Future of XR in Glasses, Not Headsets?
Apple’s foray into spatial computing with the Vision Pro hasn’t exactly launched as planned. After a promising but limited 2024, 2025 proved a challenging year, with manufacturing halts, shipment delays, and ultimately, a meager 45,000 units sold – a dramatic drop from the 390,000 shipped the previous year. This isn’t just an Apple problem; the broader VR/AR headset market is facing a reality check.
The Price of Immersion: Why Headsets Are Struggling
The Vision Pro’s $3,500 price tag is a significant barrier to entry. It’s a luxury item when compared to Meta’s Quest headsets, which start around $349. This price disparity is a key factor in Meta’s dominance, shipping 1.7 million units in the first three quarters of 2025 alone. However, even Meta experienced a 16% year-over-year decline in shipments, signaling a cooling in consumer enthusiasm for bulky headgear. As IDC’s Francisco Jeronimo bluntly stated, “All of these ideas that AR and VR would replace smartphones didn’t happen. It will never happen.”
The Rise of Smart Glasses: A More Practical Vision?
While headsets falter, a different form factor is gaining traction: smart glasses. IDC forecasts a remarkable 211.2% growth in the smart glasses market for 2025. Meta’s Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses, shipping 20,000 units in Q3 2025, are leading the charge. This shift suggests consumers are more receptive to a less immersive, more socially acceptable form of augmented reality.
The appeal of smart glasses lies in their subtlety and potential for everyday use. Instead of isolating users in a virtual world, they overlay digital information onto the real world, offering a more seamless and integrated experience. This aligns with Jeronimo’s observation that glasses offer a more natural way to interact with content “without having to spend $3,500 on a device.”
Enterprise and Education: A Lifeline for VR Headsets?
Despite consumer headwinds, VR headsets may find a niche in specialized applications. Apple is actively exploring enterprise use cases for the Vision Pro in sectors like healthcare, manufacturing, and aviation training. UC San Diego is conducting clinical trials using the Vision Pro during live surgeries, while Purdue University is leveraging the technology to create digital twins of industrial facilities for student training.
This focus on professional applications makes sense. The high cost of headsets is less of a concern for organizations seeking to improve efficiency and productivity. IDC predicts Apple will ship 290,000 Vision Pro units in 2026, generating $636 million in revenue, driven largely by this enterprise demand.
Advertising Spend Reflects the Shift
The market’s changing priorities are also reflected in advertising spend. Sensor Tower data reveals that Apple’s Vision Pro advertising in key markets was down over 95% year-over-year in 2025. Meta’s Quest advertising also saw a significant decline (over 55%). This pullback suggests both companies are reassessing their marketing strategies and focusing resources on more promising areas, like smart glasses.
Looking Ahead: CAGR and Market Predictions
IDC forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.3% for the smart glasses market from 2025 to 2029. While the overall VR/AR headset market is expected to decline by 42.8% in 2025, this doesn’t signal the death of extended reality. It signifies a necessary correction and a shift in focus.
FAQ: Extended Reality in 2026 and Beyond
- Is VR/AR dead? No, but the market is evolving. Headsets are facing challenges, while smart glasses are gaining momentum.
- What is driving the growth of smart glasses? Their affordability, social acceptability, and potential for everyday use.
- Will Apple abandon the Vision Pro? Unlikely. Apple is likely refocusing on enterprise and educational applications where the high price is less of a barrier.
- What is the expected CAGR for smart glasses? IDC forecasts a CAGR of 29.3% from 2025 to 2029.
The future of XR isn’t about replacing smartphones; it’s about augmenting our reality in subtle, useful ways. Smart glasses appear poised to lead this charge, offering a more practical and accessible path to a digitally enhanced world. While Apple may continue to refine its headset offerings for specialized markets, the broader industry is clearly signaling that the future is looking… smaller, and a lot more stylish.
Want to learn more about the evolving landscape of XR? Explore our articles on the impact of AI on augmented reality and the ethical considerations of spatial computing.
