The outbreak of war between Iran, Israel, and the United States has once again placed the South Caucasus on the stage of a potential regional crisis. While Armenia is not directly participating in the conflict, it cannot afford to ignore it, given its limited open borders – to the north with Georgia and to the south with Iran – while borders to the west with Turkey and to the east with Azerbaijan remain closed. This fragile regional balance makes Armenia particularly vulnerable to the geopolitical consequences of an unstable Iran.
Expert Insight:
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has faced criticism from the opposition and public opinion. While the conflict erupted in neighboring Iran, Pashinyan and his delegation of ministers and deputies were touring various regions of the country on pre-election campaign stops, a move critics interpreted as a lack of seriousness given the potential security implications.
To address the criticism, Prime Minister Pashinyan emphasized that, in the week leading up to the conflict, the government had been closely monitoring developments in Iran. In that context, Defense Minister Suren Papikyan traveled to Tehran just four days before the attack by Israel and the United States, where he met with his counterpart, Aziz Nasirzadeh.
Armenia’s state apparatus has anticipated concerning scenarios. Its annual report on external security risks warns that increased instability in Iran would exacerbate Armenia’s security problems, particularly in managing migration flows, economic and logistical risks, and threats to the delicate peace consolidation process in the South Caucasus.
The war has already had an immediate impact: the rise in gas and fuel prices in global markets. Armenia, which imports more than 75% of its energy from abroad, is particularly concerned, as this translates to inflation, increased transportation costs, and direct pressure on consumer prices at a time when the government is unpopular ahead of presidential elections.
This energy vulnerability is linked to logistical realities. Approximately 20% of the cargo entering Armenia does so through the 44 kilometers of border with Iran, primarily hydrocarbons and key construction materials. A significant portion of goods also arrives at the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas and is then transported overland to Armenian territory. According to Armenian sources, this flow, which was temporarily halted during the initial days of bombing, is tentatively resuming.
The strategic importance of Iran to Armenia was particularly evident during the 2020 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Tehran warned that any attempt to modify internationally recognized borders or advance into Armenian territory would be unacceptable. This position was interpreted in Yerevan as a deterrent, functioning as a political message that a forced transformation of the regional map would not be tolerated without consequences.
The resolution of the conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel is vital for Armenia. A crisis on its southern border with the potential to alter its demographics, economy, and fragile strategic balance could jeopardize the country, leaving it without the support of its only ally in the region.
Armenia and Iran have mutual needs. Sergei Melkonyan, a doctor in international relations, emphasized that Armenia’s priority is the stability of Iran, regardless of the type of regime. Armenia’s interests are linked to regional connectivity, logistical chains with India, access to the Persian Gulf, and, for Iran, the possibility of connecting that space with the Black Sea through Armenian territory.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Armenia’s direct involvement in the conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States?
Armenia is not directly participating in the conflict, but This proves closely monitoring the situation due to its geographical location and reliance on Iran for trade and logistics.
What concerns does Armenia have regarding the conflict?
Armenia is concerned about the potential for increased instability in Iran, which could exacerbate security problems related to migration, the economy, logistics, and the peace process in the South Caucasus.
What steps has the Armenian government taken in response to the conflict?
The Armenian government has been closely monitoring developments in Iran, and the Defense Minister traveled to Tehran just days before the attacks to meet with his Iranian counterpart.
How will the evolving situation in Iran impact Armenia’s future stability and security?
