ASEAN intends to complete the ratification of its renewed petroleum-security agreement before the bloc’s November summit to coordinate emergency responses during energy crises, according to ASEAN Centre for Energy Executive Director Razib Dawood. Six of the 11 member states have already ratified the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Petroleum Security (APSA).
Six members ratify APSA before November summit
The remaining five ASEAN members are currently processing domestic approval procedures. Dawood told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, during Singapore International Energy Week (Oct. 26-30) that the target is full ratification by the November summit.
The pact, signed in October 2025, replaces a 2009 agreement. Once ratified, it takes effect 90 days after the formal deposit with the ASEAN secretary-general. Following that window, the ASEAN Centre for Energy will finalize emergency-response protocols and conduct drills to test supply disruption assistance.
Did you know? The APSA framework covers crude oil, petroleum products, and natural gas to help members facing critical supply shortages.
Voluntary assistance limits emergency cargoes
Under the APSA framework, members endeavor to collectively supply 10% of a distressed country’s normal requirements. However, this assistance is voluntary and commercial, which Dawood noted limits the assurance of emergency cargoes.
To request help, a country must first implement demand-reduction measures. A “critical shortage” is defined as a shortfall of at least 10% of normal domestic requirements lasting for 30 consecutive days.
Dawood pointed to 2026 as a year where simultaneous supply pressures across the region left member states with little spare fuel to offer neighbors. He stated the mechanism is most effective when one or two countries face shortages while others maintain surplus supplies.
Oil bills projected to hit $369 billion by 2045
The ninth ASEAN Energy Outlook, launched Oct. 8, indicates rising long-term exposure for the region. According to the report’s baseline scenario, final energy consumption will more than quadruple between 2025 and 2060.
| Period | Annual Oil Bill (2020 Prices) |
|---|---|
| Late 2020s | ~$165 billion |
| After 2045 | ~$369 billion |
Dawood emphasized the need to “secure the molecule” through immediate cushioning mechanisms. To reduce import dependence, he cited fuel switching, alternative energy, and regional cooperation as essential tools for supporting economic growth.
Feasibility studies for shared strategic stockpiling
While APSA allows for voluntary and commercial joint stockpiling, a formal regional initiative remains at the feasibility-study stage. Dawood said the bloc could explore shared strategic stockpiling, though individual countries may still pursue independent arrangements.
The ASEAN Centre for Energy’s coordinated-transition scenario suggests that electrification and other measures could reduce 2060 transport oil consumption by approximately 8 million b/d compared to the baseline scenario.
Industry Insight: Infrastructure investment in energy is viewed by the ASEAN Centre for Energy as a driver for job creation and economic expansion, rather than a trade-off against the energy transition.
ASEAN petroleum security common questions
What happens if all ASEAN countries face a shortage at once?
Because assistance is voluntary and commercial, simultaneous pressures—as seen in 2026—can leave members with insufficient spare fuel to assist neighbors.
How is a “critical shortage” officially measured under APSA?
A shortage is considered critical if it reaches at least 10% of normal domestic requirements and lasts for 30 consecutive days.
Does APSA create a single pooled oil reserve for the region?
No. The framework allows for voluntary joint arrangements and commercial stockpiling, but a regional pooled reserve is currently only at the feasibility-study stage.
It remains unclear which of the five remaining member states will finalize their domestic approval procedures in time for the November announcement.
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