The recent taste of winter, with skating opportunities in some areas, is set to fade, but don’t pack away those winter coats just yet. Weather models are proving particularly challenging, largely due to the formation of a powerful high-pressure system over the Atlantic, extending towards Greenland. Its precise location will heavily influence Benelux weather, but a continued cold spell with increasing chances of wintry precipitation seems likely. Let’s dive into the details.
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Current Weather Across Europe
Europe’s weather is currently dominated by a strong high-pressure area near Iceland and a low-pressure system, Storm Johannes, over Eastern Europe. This creates a powerful wind flow bringing polar air southwards. Scandinavia has experienced significant snowfall and disruptive wind gusts. A second cold front, currently over Scandinavia, is sending a fresh pulse of cold air towards the Benelux, though its impact at ground level is somewhat moderated by onshore winds. The Iberian Peninsula is also experiencing changeable conditions.
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The influx of polar air is resulting in cool temperatures across much of Europe, with scattered wintry precipitation. Many areas are seeing temperatures between 0 and 5°C, while parts of Eastern and Northern Europe are below freezing. Even the Mediterranean region is experiencing cooler temperatures, peaking around 15°C.
Weather Forecast for the Next Few Days
Monday will begin with freezing fog in many areas, locally becoming dense. Drier air in the south of the Benelux will bring broader clearings. Clear spells will gradually develop from the north, but cloud cover will persist in many places. A light shower or drizzle from the cloud is possible. Temperatures will hover around freezing in southern Belgium, rising to 8°C further north. Winds will be light and variable, becoming moderate from the north in the north.
Tuesday will start cool with general frost in the east due to clear skies. The west will be milder with cloud cover and occasional light showers. This east-west divide will continue throughout the day, with plenty of sunshine in the east and occasional clouds with a small chance of showers in the west. Highs will be around freezing in the High Ardennes and between 3 and 7°C elsewhere. A weak to moderate north wind will prevail.
Wednesday will be cloudy with occasional light precipitation. The Ardennes may see some wintry precipitation. Afternoon may bring some clearings from the southwest, but cloud cover will remain dominant. Temperatures will remain between 0 and 7°C with a weak to moderate westerly wind.
Thursday, New Year’s Day, will be predominantly cloudy. Local clearings are possible, but cloud cover will be the dominant feature. It will remain dry for most of the day, but the chance of some wintry showers increases in the afternoon, potentially with sleet or melting snow. Temperatures will remain between 0 and 7°C with a moderate wind, becoming strong at the coast, from the west to southwest.
Friday, according to the latest models, is expected to be mostly dry with some sunshine. It will remain cool with temperatures between 0 and 6°C and a light to moderate westerly wind.
The Weekend Outlook: A Potential for Significant Snow
The weekend looks particularly interesting. A low-pressure system is forecast to move towards mainland Europe from the Azores. This system brings very mild air on its leading edge, but colder air on its northern flank. The boundary between these air masses – a temperature gradient – could trigger significant precipitation. The American model predicts a substantial snow cover of over 20cm in parts of the Benelux, while the European model keeps the temperature gradient south of the region. The weekend will be a tense one!
If a temperature gradient develops and is correctly positioned, significant snowfall is possible. The American model shows widespread snow depths exceeding 20cm, while the north of the Netherlands is expected to see less. Large variations over short distances are typical of a temperature gradient!
Will the Cold Persist?
To assess the longer-term outlook, we can examine the weather model plumes. These provide insight into the range of possible calculations for the coming days. Over the next few days, temperatures are expected to hover around 5°C, but the weekend (when the low-pressure system arrives) could change things. Some scenarios show warmer temperatures (temperature gradient north of the Benelux), but these are currently less likely. Most scenarios place the temperature gradient south of the Benelux or directly over it. The American model’s operational run suggests this scenario, with correspondingly low temperatures. While the probability is still uncertain, we are seeing a trend towards a cooler-than-normal period (above 7°C) for this time of year – a welcome change!
The chance of wintry precipitation increases from the weekend, either through a temperature gradient from the south or through wintry showers arriving from the north. Several models hint at a predominantly cool January with renewed blocking patterns over the Atlantic (due to various teleconnections). This offers hope for winter enthusiasts (or snow lovers) to experience some more winter weather in the Benelux in the coming weeks. However, skating on natural ice remains unlikely for now.
FAQ
- What is a temperature gradient? A temperature gradient is a zone where there is a significant difference in temperature over a short distance. This often leads to the formation of precipitation.
- What are teleconnections? Teleconnections are long-distance relationships between weather phenomena in different parts of the world. They can influence weather patterns in the Benelux.
- How reliable are weather models? Weather models are constantly improving, but they are not perfect. They are best used as a guide, and it’s important to consider multiple models.
Did you know? The accuracy of weather forecasts decreases significantly beyond 7-10 days. Long-range forecasts should be viewed with caution.
Pro Tip: Stay updated with the latest forecasts from reliable sources like national meteorological institutes and reputable weather websites.
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