Why Bitcoin Is Entering a “Weakness Phase” – and What It Means for the Future

Recent price action shows Bitcoin sliding below the USD 86,000 mark, a dip not seen since early December. While a three‑percent drop may look modest, it signals a broader shift in investor sentiment that could reshape the crypto market over the next 12‑18 months.

Macro‑Economic Headwinds: Inflation, Rate Hikes & Investor Caution

Analyst Timo Emden points to upcoming US economic data—GDP, CPI, and Federal Reserve minutes—as the main drivers of the sell‑off. When central banks signal tighter monetary policy, risk‑on assets like Bitcoin often lose appeal.

Did you know? In the last 12 months Bitcoin has fallen about 8 %, while gold has gained roughly 64 %, marking the strongest yearly uplift for gold since 1979.

Bitcoin vs. Gold: The “Safe‑Haven” Debate

Gold’s price surged to USD 4,350 before easing, staying within the historic high of USD 4,380. The metal’s resilience underscores why many investors still view it as a hedge against uncertainty, whereas Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a “macro‑sensitive” asset.

Real‑world case: Bloomberg’s November 2025 analysis highlighted that institutional portfolios reduced crypto exposure by 15 % in favor of gold during the same period.

Institutional Influx: From Retail‑Driven Chaos to Regulated Products

The rise of regulated Bitcoin‑ETPs, such as those offered by 21Shares, is attracting a new wave of institutional capital. In a recent BX Morningcall video, crypto‑expert Bernhard Wenger explained how “physically‑backed” ETFs provide a compliance‑friendly bridge for banks and pension funds.

Pro tip: If you’re tracking crypto exposure, focus on ETFs with full‑reserve backing and transparent fee structures—these tend to outperform unregulated spot holdings during market downturns.

What to Watch: Key Indicators for the Next Crypto Cycle

  • US CPI & Core Inflation: A slowdown could revive risk appetite.
  • Federal Reserve Rate Decisions: Any hint of easing would likely buoy Bitcoin.
  • ETF Flow Data: Net inflows into regulated crypto products signal institutional confidence.
  • Gold‑Bitcoin Correlation: A widening gap often precedes a crypto rally.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Bitcoin still a good long‑term investment?
Yes, for many investors Bitcoin remains a hedge against fiat devaluation, though volatility demands a diversified portfolio.
Why is gold outperforming Bitcoin right now?
Gold benefits from its “safe‑haven” status, especially when central banks tighten monetary policy and risk assets lose appeal.
What are Bitcoin‑ETPs and why do they matter?
ETPs (exchange‑traded products) are regulated securities that track Bitcoin’s price while offering custody, compliance, and transparency, making them attractive to institutions.
How can I protect my crypto portfolio from macro‑economic shocks?
Consider allocating a portion to regulated ETFs, using stop‑loss orders, and maintaining a diversified mix of assets like gold, equities, and bonds.

Where to Learn More

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