Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Is a 15% Price Swing Imminent?
Bitcoin is currently navigating a critical juncture, trading below $70,000 and forming a tightening symmetrical triangle. This pattern, according to analyst Ali Martinez, suggests a potential 15% price movement in either direction. The market is exhibiting a balance between buyers and sellers, with declining volatility, setting the stage for a decisive breakout.
The Bullish Case: A Potential Short Squeeze
A breakout above the upper trendline of the triangle could propel Bitcoin towards the $78,000 area. This represents a roughly 15% increase from current levels. Analysts are also pointing to the possibility of a “short squeeze” between $71,200 and $73,500. A clean break above $73,000 could test the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
Supporting this bullish outlook, the Inter-Exchange Flow indicator is showing early signs of stabilization after a prolonged decline. This suggests a potential exhaustion of selling pressure and a possible shift in capital flows.
The Bearish Scenario: A Potential Drop to $58,000
Conversely, a breakdown below the lower boundary of the triangle could trigger a move towards the $58,000 zone, representing a similar percentage decline. Trading activity currently favors Bitcoin, capturing 36.8% of Binance volume on February 7th compared to 35.3% for altcoins. Yet, altcoin volume has decreased significantly.
Despite this, Bitcoin’s dominance is declining, falling 2.23% in three weeks, and its market capitalization has dropped by 13%, indicating substantial selling pressure rather than accumulation. There are also historical patterns suggesting a potential for continued losses, with the possibility of March 2026 closing in the negative, mirroring a six-month losing streak seen in 2018.
Long-Term Outlook: Martinez’s October 2026 Prediction
Looking further ahead, analyst Ali Martinez predicts a cycle bottom for Bitcoin in October 2026, with a potential price range between $38,000 and $50,000. This projection is based on historical Bitcoin price cycle patterns, which typically involve approximately 1,064 days from bottom to top, followed by a 364-day descent.
Historically, Bitcoin bear markets have seen corrections of up to 84%. Martinez’s analysis considers these past cycles, noting that Bitcoin typically reaches a top after around 1,064 days and then declines over 364 days.
Current Market Compression
As of February 18, 2026, Bitcoin is compressing within a tightening symmetrical triangle, suggesting the market is preparing for an approximately 15% price swing.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
- What is a symmetrical triangle? A symmetrical triangle is a chart pattern formed when prices consolidate between converging trendlines, indicating a potential breakout or breakdown.
- What does a short squeeze mean? A short squeeze occurs when a heavily shorted asset experiences a rapid price increase, forcing short sellers to cover their positions, further driving up the price.
- What is the 200-day EMA? The 200-day Exponential Moving Average is a widely used technical indicator that represents the average price of an asset over the past 200 days. It is often used to identify trends and potential support/resistance levels.
- What is Inter-Exchange Flow? Inter-Exchange Flow is an indicator that tracks the movement of Bitcoin between different cryptocurrency exchanges, providing insights into market sentiment and potential price movements.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency investments are inherently risky. This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
