Why Bitcoin Remains Stuck Near $90,000 Despite Record ETF Inflows
The crypto market has been buzzing about the unprecedented capital pouring into Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs). Yet the flagship asset hovers stubbornly around the $90k mark. What’s really holding it back?
The hidden sell‑side: Covered‑call strategies by “OG” holders
Market analyst Jeff Park points to a subtle yet powerful force: long‑term Bitcoin owners – often called “OGs” – are selling covered call options on the coins they’ve held for more than a decade. By writing these call contracts, they collect premiums upfront while retaining the underlying Bitcoin unless the price spikes above the strike price.
When liquidity providers buy these calls, they must hedge their exposure by selling spot Bitcoin. This “delta‑negative” flow creates artificial downward pressure, counteracting the bullish demand from institutional investors.
How the mechanics translate into market pressure
- Premium collection: OGs lock in cash now, reducing the incentive to sell their Bitcoin later.
- Hedging by market makers: To balance the call exposure, they sell Bitcoin on the spot market, adding sell‑side volume.
- No fresh capital: The Bitcoin used in these strategies is old inventory, not new purchases that would otherwise lift the price.
- Delta‑negative bias: The net effect is a structural drag on price, even when ETF inflows are strong.
Data from the CME Group’s interest‑rate futures monitor shows that 24.4 % of traders still expect a Fed rate cut by early 2026, a scenario that could unleash fresh liquidity. But until the covered‑call pressure eases, that liquidity may not translate into a higher Bitcoin price.
Decoupling from tech stocks: A new market regime?
Since mid‑year, Bitcoin’s correlation with major tech indices has weakened. While the Nasdaq 100 continues to set all‑time highs, Bitcoin’s price action remains flat. This divergence suggests that Bitcoin is increasingly driven by crypto‑specific supply‑demand dynamics rather than broader equity market sentiment.
Professional investors are noticing the split. A recent Bloomberg Crypto report highlighted that the volatility curve of Bitcoin ETFs now differs markedly from that of on‑chain derivatives such as those on Deribit.
What could break the stalemate?
Several pathways could free Bitcoin from its current range:
- Reduced covered‑call activity: If OGs shift toward outright sales or longer‑dated options, the sell‑side pressure would decline.
- More aggressive ETF inflows: A surge in net new capital—especially from non‑crypto‑native institutions—could outpace the hedging‑induced sell orders.
- Macro‑economic tailwinds: Persistent monetary easing or a weakening dollar would improve the risk‑on environment for Bitcoin.
- Regulatory clarity: A green light from the SEC for a broader set of crypto‑linked ETFs could unlock additional demand.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is a covered call?
- A covered call is an options strategy where the holder of an asset sells a call option on that same asset, collecting a premium while retaining ownership unless the price exceeds the strike.
- Why do covered calls create downward pressure on Bitcoin?
- Market makers who purchase the calls must hedge by selling Bitcoin spot, adding sell‑side volume that can suppress prices.
- Can Bitcoin ETFs alone drive the price higher?
- ETFs bring fresh capital but can’t fully offset structural sell pressure from covered‑call hedging unless the inflows are massive and sustained.
- Is the current price stagnation a permanent feature?
- Not necessarily. As the covered‑call dynamic shifts or macro conditions change, Bitcoin can break out of the $90k range.
- How can I track the impact of covered calls on the market?
- Watch open‑interest and premium levels on major crypto derivatives exchanges and compare them to ETF net‑asset‑flow reports.
What’s Next for Bitcoin Investors?
While the covered‑call “invisible hand” explains much of today’s price inertia, the market’s resilience—shown by record ETF subscriptions and enduring institutional interest—suggests that Bitcoin is poised for a breakout when the structural drag eases.
Stay ahead of the curve by regularly reviewing option‑market data, ETF flow reports, and macro‑economic indicators. The next leg of the Bitcoin rally may be just a few data points away.
Join the conversation: Share your thoughts on covered‑call strategies in the comments below, and subscribe to our newsletter for weekly crypto‑market insights.
