Bitcoin’s Next Move: Waiting for $40K, a Political Shock, or Trump’s Exit?
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently navigating a period of uncertainty, having erased gains made since Donald Trump’s election in November 2024. Recent price drops have prompted traders to reassess entry points and potential catalysts for a market rebound. The cryptocurrency briefly fell to around $60,000 before a slight recovery to $69,000, signaling significant volatility.
DonAlt’s $40,000 Trigger
Trader DonAlt recently outlined specific conditions that would compel him to go “100% guaranteed” into Bitcoin. These aren’t based on technical analysis alone, but hinge on broader economic and political developments. The most prominent trigger is a price drop to $40,000, a level DonAlt considers deeply undervalued.
This suggests a belief that the current price is inflated, potentially due to speculation or external factors, and a significant correction is needed before a sustainable rally can begin. Waiting for this level allows for a potentially higher risk-reward ratio.
Political Shocks and the Epstein Case
Beyond price levels, DonAlt identified potential catalysts rooted in the political landscape. A major shift in US politics, specifically the departure of Donald Trump, is one such event. This highlights the perceived connection between Trump’s policies and the recent performance of Bitcoin. Trump launched a personal brand of cryptocurrency upon re-entering office in January 2025, and his administration aimed to produce the US the “crypto capital of the planet.”
Another potential trigger is the resolution of the Epstein case, with formal accusations leveled against powerful figures. This suggests a broader concern about systemic risk and potential fallout from undisclosed information.
Short-Term Strategy and Saylor’s Holdings
Until these conditions are met, DonAlt is adopting a short-term, “day-by-day” trading strategy, avoiding a strong directional bias. He also noted that a sale of Bitcoin by Michael Saylor would be a key market signal, though he doesn’t anticipate this happening before 2027 or 2028.
Broader Market Trends and ETF Flows
Bitcoin’s struggles are mirrored in the wider cryptocurrency market. Ether has lost 22.4% of its value, BNB dropped 23.4%, and Solana 25.2% in the past week. Adding to the negative sentiment, spot Bitcoin ETF flows have turned negative, and Gemini plans to close operations in several regions and cut staff.
These factors contribute to a climate of risk aversion, where investors are pulling back from crypto assets and seeking safer havens. The CoinDesk 20 index has lost over 17% of its value in the same period, demonstrating the widespread nature of the sell-off.
The Importance of $71,000 Resistance
To regain bullish momentum, DonAlt believes Bitcoin needs to reclaim the previous high near $71,000. Without this breakthrough, he prefers waiting for a more substantial pullback towards the $44,000 area, but cautions that purchases at that level may offer a less favorable risk-reward ratio.
FAQ
Q: What is DonAlt waiting for before investing more in Bitcoin?
A: DonAlt is waiting for Bitcoin to fall to $40,000, a major political shift like Donald Trump leaving office, or a resolution to the Epstein case with accusations against powerful figures.
Q: Has Bitcoin recovered all of its gains since Trump’s election?
A: No, Bitcoin has effectively given back the gains it made after Donald Trump’s election in November 2024.
Q: What is the current sentiment in the crypto market?
A: The current sentiment is negative, with ETF flows turning negative and companies like Gemini reducing operations.
Q: What does DonAlt think about a potential Bitcoin sale by Michael Saylor?
A: DonAlt believes a sale by Michael Saylor would be a significant market signal, but doesn’t expect it to happen soon.
Did you recognize? Bitcoin fell to its lowest level in 16 months, despite support from Donald Trump.
Pro Tip: Volatility is inherent in the cryptocurrency market. Always conduct thorough research and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
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