Brexit’s Unfolding Legacy: Has the UK Regained Control of Its Borders?
The promise of “taking back control” of borders was a central tenet of the 2016 Brexit campaign. However, the reality since leaving the European Union has been far more complex. Rather than declining, net migration to the UK has significantly increased since the finish of free movement, reaching a record high of around 745,000 people in 2022. This outcome directly contradicts the stated political goal of reducing immigration.
Shifting Migration Patterns Post-Brexit
While overall migration has risen, the composition has changed. EU immigration has decreased, with the net balance now negative. This decline has been offset by a substantial increase in migration from non-EU countries. Humanitarian programs, particularly those for refugees from Ukraine and Hong Kong, have contributed significantly to this shift. The introduction of a points-based immigration system has also facilitated access for skilled workers, especially in sectors like healthcare and education, and international students from countries like India and Nigeria.
Recent data from 2025 suggests a potential turning point, with early indications of a decrease in immigration. This is attributed to the expiration of specific programs, stricter visa regulations, and students returning home after completing their studies.
Economic Impacts: Labor Shortages and Structural Adjustments
Brexit has demonstrably impacted the UK labor market. Immediately following the EU exit, shortages emerged in several industries, most notably in logistics, exemplified by the lack of truck drivers that disrupted supply chains. The UK has faced a long-standing skills gap, and the departure of workers from Eastern European EU countries has exacerbated this issue in sectors like agriculture, construction, hospitality, and healthcare.
Economists identify structural adjustment costs linked to Brexit, even though the overall labor market has remained relatively robust.
The Ongoing Challenge of Irregular Migration
The number of people attempting to cross the English Channel in slight boats has risen sharply since 2018, becoming a highly politically charged issue. While this represents a relatively small proportion of overall immigration numbers, it has dominated public debate.
The Conservative government, under Rishi Sunak, attempted to address this through a controversial agreement to outsource asylum processing to Rwanda. However, this plan was blocked by the UK’s Supreme Court, which deemed Rwanda an unsafe third country. The subsequent Labour government, led by Keir Starmer, abandoned the scheme, despite having already paid £240 million to Rwanda without a single deportation taking place.
Political Instability and Shifting Public Opinion
The Brexit referendum triggered a period of significant political instability in the UK. David Cameron resigned after the vote, followed by Theresa May, who failed to secure parliamentary approval for her withdrawal agreement. Boris Johnson ultimately implemented Brexit but later lost office. This period saw two snap elections, in 2017 and 2019.
The process was marked by a highly polarized and often acrimonious political climate, with threats against MPs and a deepening of societal divisions. Even prominent figures from the Leave campaign, like Nigel Farage, have expressed disillusionment, with Farage later describing Brexit as “failed” and re-entering politics with the Reform UK party.
Public opinion has also shifted. Recent polls indicate that a majority of Britons now believe Brexit was a mistake, although support for rejoining the EU remains complex. A sense of disillusionment prevails, with many feeling that the promised benefits of Brexit have not materialized.
Looking Ahead: Pragmatism and the Future Relationship with the EU
Neither of the major parties is currently advocating for a return to the EU or a new referendum. Instead, both are pursuing a more pragmatic approach, seeking closer ties with the EU without fundamentally reversing the Brexit decision. As one British publicist noted, British politicians are wary of trusting voters again after the tumultuous experience of Brexit.
Did you know?
The UK has paid £240 million to Rwanda for an asylum scheme that has not resulted in a single deportation.
Pro Tip
Understanding the nuances of the points-based immigration system is crucial for businesses seeking to recruit skilled workers from outside the EU.
FAQ
Q: Has Brexit reduced immigration to the UK?
A: No, net migration has actually increased since Brexit.
Q: What impact has Brexit had on the UK labor market?
A: Brexit has contributed to labor shortages in several sectors, particularly those reliant on EU workers.
Q: Is the UK likely to rejoin the EU?
A: Currently, neither major party is advocating for rejoining the EU, but public opinion is shifting.
Q: What is the current status of the Rwanda asylum plan?
A: The plan has been abandoned by the current government after being deemed unlawful by the UK Supreme Court.
Explore further analysis of UK migration trends here.
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