Indonesia may face a prolonged and drier-than-normal dry season from April to October 2026, according to climate and atmospheric researchers at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN). The anticipated conditions stem from the simultaneous influence of El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD+).
Understanding the Phenomena
Researchers at BRIN are referring to the upcoming El Niño as a “super El Niño” due to temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean expected to exceed 1.5 to 2.0 degrees Celsius. El Niño is characterized by increased sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, with warming near the American continent and cooling near Papua, leading to shifts in cloud formation and rainfall patterns.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also plays a role. A positive IOD indicates cooler sea surface temperatures near Sumatra and Java, resulting in reduced rainfall across the Indonesian region due to a high-pressure system.
Regional Impacts
BRIN’s prediction model suggests a dry period from April to July 2026 across much of Java to East Nusa Tenggara. Conversely, the northern parts of Sulawesi and North Maluku could experience high rainfall during the same period. This uneven distribution mirrors conditions observed in 2023, when southern Indonesia faced drought while the north experienced flooding.
Researchers anticipate the initiation of El Niño in April. The combination of El Niño and IOD+ is expected to create hot and dry weather conditions, with minimal low cloud cover over Java. The potential for drought, particularly impacting the national food reserve in the northern coastal areas of Java from June to August, is a key concern.
Looking Ahead
Mitigation efforts are needed to address the potential for forest and land fires in Sumatra, and Kalimantan. Strategies to manage potential floods and landslides in the northern parts of Sulawesi and Maluku may be necessary. The predicted conditions are similar to those experienced between May 2023 and May 2024, when El Niño and IOD+ occurred concurrently.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a phenomenon of increased sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, specifically warming in the eastern part and cooling in the western part, which impacts cloud formation and rainfall.
What is a positive IOD?
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) indicates a cooling of sea surface temperatures near Sumatra and Java, leading to reduced rainfall in the Indonesian region.
When is the dry season expected to begin?
According to BRIN, El Niño is expected to begin in April, initiating a dry season that could last from April to October 2026.
How will communities best prepare for a potentially prolonged dry season and uneven rainfall patterns?
