A new poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies reveals a state deeply divided over federal immigration enforcement, with two-thirds of California voters disapproving of President Trump’s policies even as Republican support ticks upward. The findings, released Wednesday, underscore a persistent tension: while overall disapproval remains high at 64%, nearly half of all voters worry that they or someone close to them could be detained under the current administration’s rules.
The survey, conducted for the Los Angeles Times between March 9 and 15, captures a moment of recalibration in the state’s political landscape. Overall disapproval has dipped slightly from 69% in August, driven largely by a consolidation of Republican support. Currently, 86% of California Republicans approve of the president’s immigration policies, up from 79% last summer.
G. Cristina Mora, co-director of the institute and a sociology professor at UC Berkeley, suggests the shift may reflect a normalization of tactics rather than a change in ideology. Following widespread raids in Los Angeles and other cities last summer, the administration has adjusted its approach. Mora noted that after violent escalations elsewhere—including incidents in Minneapolis where protesters were shot by federal agents—the president tapped border advisor Tom Homan to oversee enforcement operations.
Republican strategist Ford O’Connell argues this personnel change signaled a “lighter touch” that reassured voters. “Tom Homan being in charge and publicly taking a much lighter touch and appearing reasonable to the average voter is why you’re seeing this turnaround,” O’Connell said. Democratic strategist Maria Cardona disputed that assessment, calling it wishful thinking. “It only went down five points,” Cardona said. “That’s not the American people being on the side of the administration — it’s that they’re not seeing American citizens murdered on their screens every day.”
Beyond approval ratings, the poll exposes sharp disagreements over civil liberties that cut across party lines. When asked if immigration agents should be allowed to enter homes without a judge-approved search warrant, California Republicans were split: 45% said no, while 38% said yes. O’Connell attributed the opposition to a strong Republican valuation of property rights and civil liberties.
However, support for agent anonymity remains strong among the right. While 91% of Democrats opposed allowing ICE agents to wear masks on duty, 68% of Republicans favored the policy. O’Connell noted that Republicans understand the concerns regarding agents being doxxed, suggesting the administration might seek a middle ground with badge numbers rather than full facial concealment.
The human stakes of these policies are reflected in the personal anxiety reported by voters. 45% of respondents are somewhat or very concerned about potential detention. Among Latino voters, that figure rises to 62%. Black voters also expressed significant concern at 46%, a statistic Mora attributes to the high concentration of mixed-heritage families and close community ties in areas like Los Angeles.
This polling data arrives amidst a broader conflict between the state and the federal government. UC Berkeley analysts have warned that the administration may be planning an extended offensive against California spanning public health, climate, and education. Scholars suggest that infringements on the rights of the undocumented are increasingly viewed by voters as potential precursors to broader infringements on citizens’ rights.
Understanding the Poll
How was the data collected? The Institute of Governmental Studies poll was completed online in English and Spanish by 5,109 registered voters in California.
What drives the shift in Republican approval?
Strategists point to two factors: the framing of questions involving the president’s name and a perceived de-escalation of violent tactics under new enforcement leadership. However, Democrats argue the change is marginal and driven by reduced media coverage of violence rather than policy substance.
Why are Black voters concerned?
Researchers note that while most Black Californians are not immigrants themselves, many have immigrant friends, neighbors, or family members, including a significant population of children with one Black and one Latino parent.
As enforcement tactics evolve and legal battles over funding and authority continue, the divide between state voters and federal policy shows little sign of narrowing.
