California Democrats are launching a significant polling effort, costing “multiple six figures,” as concerns rise over the possibility of a Republican winning the governor’s race. The move follows a failed attempt by state party leader Rusty Hicks to persuade several Democratic candidates to withdraw from the June primary.
A Crowded Primary Field
Hicks urged candidates without a “viable” path to victory to forgo filing for the race, but only one of the nine prominent Democrats—former state Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon—heeded the call. This leaves eight Democrats competing for votes in the primary, increasing the risk of a split vote that could allow a Republican to advance to the November general election.
Two Republicans have already filed for the race: former conservative commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. Despite Democratic voters outnumbering Republicans nearly 2 to 1 in the state, a fractured Democratic vote could allow both Republican candidates to advance.
Potential Consequences
A Republican victory would mark the first time in two decades a Republican has held statewide office in California. Beyond the governorship, a depressed Democratic voter turnout could also impact down-ballot races, potentially influencing control of Congress, as some races could “determine control” of the legislative body.
The polling will be conducted by Evitarus, the state’s only Black- and Latino-led full-service polling firm, and will oversample Latino, Black, and Asian American voters. The first poll results are expected on March 24, with five additional surveys to follow before mail ballots are distributed in early May.
Criticism of the Polling Effort
The polling initiative has drawn criticism from some Democratic candidates, including former state Controller Betty Yee, who called it a “costly poll — clearly aimed at narrowing the field.” Former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and state Supt. Of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond expressed concerns that the effort could be targeted at candidates of color. Others, like Villaraigosa’s campaign manager, Ajay Mohan, questioned whether the funds wouldn’t be better spent on voter turnout efforts.
Frequently Asked Questions
What prompted the California Democratic Party to commission these polls?
Anxiety over the possibility of a Republican winning the governor’s race prompted the party to assess the viability of the candidates in the June primary.
How many Democratic candidates remain in the race after the party’s request to withdraw?
Eight Democratic candidates remain in the race after only one, former state Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon, heeded the call to withdraw.
What is the top-two primary system in California?
The state has a voter-approved system where the two candidates who receive the most votes in the June primary, regardless of party, advance to the November general election.
Given the crowded field and the potential for a split vote, how will the information gathered from these polls be used to shape the Democratic strategy moving forward?
