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Recent U.S. military action against Islamic State (IS) militants in Nigeria, undertaken at the request of the Nigerian government, highlights growing concerns about the group’s resurgence. This comes after IS was previously defeated by a U.S.-led coalition in the Middle East. President Donald Trump stated on Truth Social that the group has been targeting Christians in Nigeria “at levels not seen for many years.”
The Rise and Fall of the Caliphate
Emerging from Iraq and Syria, Islamic State, a Sunni Muslim group, rapidly established a self-declared “caliphate,” challenging al Qaeda’s dominance. Between 2014 and 2017, IS controlled significant territory in both countries, governing millions of people and maintaining a presence just 30 minutes from Baghdad, as well as the city of Sirte in Libya.
Within its territory, IS imposed a strict interpretation of Sharia law and employed brutal tactics, including public executions and torture. The group also inspired or carried out attacks in cities worldwide. However, a sustained military campaign by a U.S.-led coalition ultimately led to the collapse of the caliphate in both Iraq and Syria.
Did You Know? Islamic State held the city of Sirte on Libya’s Mediterranean coast at the height of its power between 2014 and 2017.
Current Operations and Global Reach
Following its territorial losses in Syria and Iraq, IS fighters retreated to the hinterlands of those countries. The group maintains a significant presence in Syria, Iraq, parts of Africa – including the Sahel region – and in Afghanistan and Pakistan. IS leadership remains clandestine, and its overall size is difficult to determine, though the U.N. estimates a membership of 10,000 in its core areas.
The group has also seen an influx of foreign fighters joining Islamic State’s Khorasan branch (ISIS-K), operating in a region encompassing parts of Iran, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan. Affiliates remain active in the Philippines, particularly in Mindanao, where militants controlled the city of Marawi in 2017.
Evolving Tactics
While IS continues to pursue its goal of spreading its extreme form of Islam, it has adapted its tactics since the loss of its territorial control. The group now operates as a more disparate network of affiliates and sympathizers. Despite this, it retains the capacity to carry out high-profile attacks, claiming responsibility for them on platforms like Telegram and disseminating images to spread fear.
Currently, there is no indication of coordinated weapons or financial exchange between IS militants operating in different regions. The U.S. military identifies Abdulqadir Mumin, who leads the Somalia branch, as the group’s current leader.
Expert Insight: The shift towards a decentralized network of affiliates presents a complex challenge for counterterrorism efforts. While lacking the territorial control of the past, IS’s ability to inspire attacks and operate through independent cells demonstrates its enduring ideological appeal and adaptability.
Recent Attacks and Global Impact
Recent incidents linked to IS include a shooting at a Jewish Hanukkah event in Sydney, Australia, where police indicated the gunman was inspired by the group, resulting in 15 deaths. The individuals accused in Australia’s worst mass shooting in nearly 30 years had previously spent time in the Philippines, an area known for IS-linked networks.
In Syria, where the government cooperates with the U.S.-led coalition, IS continues to strike and plot. This month, two U.S. soldiers and a civilian interpreter were killed by a member of the Syrian security forces suspected of IS sympathies, prompting large-scale U.S. strikes against IS targets. IS publicly expressed animosity towards Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa prior to the attack. The group has also claimed responsibility for attacks in Africa, including one in eastern Congo in October that a U.N. mission reported killed at least 43 worshippers.
In February, IS attacked military bases in Somalia, resulting in 70 militant deaths following subsequent airstrikes.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was Islamic State’s original goal?
IS has always wanted to spread its extreme form of Islam, declaring its rule over all Muslims when it established a “caliphate.”
Where is IS currently most active?
IS retains a significant presence in Syria and Iraq, parts of Africa including the Sahel region, and in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
How has IS changed its tactics since losing territory?
IS has adopted new tactics since the collapse of its forces, operating through affiliates and sympathisers and focusing on high-profile attacks.
Given the group’s demonstrated ability to adapt and inspire attacks across multiple continents, what steps might international security forces take to proactively counter its evolving strategies?
