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Just hours after Israeli and US bombs began hitting Tehran on Saturday, Russia issued a strong statement, with its UN representative, Vassily Nebenzia, calling the attacks an “unprovoked act of armed aggression against a sovereign and independent UN member state.” Despite being one of Tehran’s staunchest allies, Moscow has not intervened to aid Iran.
Russia-Iran Partnership
Moscow and Tehran have been collaborating on several economic projects crucial to Russia, particularly since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which disrupted traditional transit routes, according to Nikita Smagin, an independent expert on Russia and the Middle East.
One key project is the North-South transport corridor, a 7,200-kilometer (4,473 miles) multi-mode network signed by Russia, India, and Iran in 2000. The Gulf Research Center reports that 75% of this corridor is now complete.
Did You Know? Russia and Iran signed the agreement for the North-South transport corridor in 2000.
Iran has similarly provided Russia with crucial military support, notably Shahed drones since 2023, which Julian Waller of the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) says “largely reshaped the Ukraine war.” Russia has also reportedly shared intelligence with Iran and sent missiles and ammunition to Tehran.
Although, the partnership isn’t based on shared ideology. According to Smagin, “Russian politicians don’t particularly like Iran,” but view Tehran as a reliable partner because both countries face international sanctions, unlike nations like Turkey or Egypt who might be pressured by the West to cease trade with Russia.
Gregoire Roos, director for Europe and Russia at Chatham House, suggests Iran has even become a mentor to Moscow, advising on how to circumvent international sanctions due to its extensive experience in doing so.
Iran’s Miscalculation?
Despite the close ties, experts believe Russia is unlikely to actively intervene in the ongoing conflict. Waller stated, “The two countries are not defensive allies.” Some analysts suggest an informal non-attack pact between Russia and Israel may also be a factor.
Expert Insight: Russia’s limited response suggests a calculated approach, prioritizing its own interests while avoiding direct confrontation. The partnership with Iran appears strategically motivated by shared geopolitical challenges, rather than a deep ideological alignment.
Mojtaba Hashemi, an international relations expert, noted that Tehran expected “tangible political and military support” from Moscow, including expanded cooperation and a deterrent message to its enemies, but these expectations were not met.
Mohammad Ghaedi, a lecturer at George Washington University, believes Iranian leaders weren’t surprised by Russia’s lack of support, referencing past statements from former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who said, “Russia has always sold out the Iranian nation.”
The Iran War: Benefits and Drawbacks for Moscow
A prolonged conflict could benefit Moscow, according to Chatham House’s Roos, by diverting media attention from Ukraine and potentially forcing Washington to prioritize the Middle East.
Economically, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas passes—has caused oil and gas prices to soar. Julian Waller of CNA suggests that sustained high prices could allow the Kremlin to reduce domestic taxes used to finance the war.
However, the potential collapse of the Iranian regime would be a setback for Russia’s standing as a global power, as Moscow aims to replace the Western-driven world order with a multipolar one, Roos explained. He added that the rapid erosion of this group of aligned nations represents a loss of influence for Russia in the region.
Will the Russia-Iran Alliance Continue?
Hashemi believes Russia’s lack of support could damage the alliance. He suggests Russia and China have largely used Iran as a “geopolitical bargaining chip” and will likely seek reassurances from any future Iranian government rather than supporting a failing regime.
Ghaedi believes the current Iranian regime will likely endeavor to maintain ties with Moscow, given its strained relations with the West, particularly as Russia holds veto power at the UN Security Council.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the North-South transport corridor?
The North-South transport corridor is a 7,200-kilometer (4,473 miles) multi-mode network signed by Russia, India, and Iran in 2000, intended to facilitate trade and transit. Currently, 75% of the project is complete.
What role have drones played in the Russia-Ukraine war?
Iran has provided Shahed drones to Russia since 2023, which Julian Waller of CNA says “largely reshaped the Ukraine war.”
Why hasn’t Russia directly intervened in the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran?
Experts suggest Russia and Iran are not “defensive allies” and that Russia may have an informal non-attack pact with Israel. Russia also appears to be prioritizing its own interests and avoiding direct confrontation.
As the situation unfolds, will the strategic partnership between Russia and Iran withstand the pressures of this escalating conflict?
