The Boiling Point: How Hydropower and Climate Change are Reshaping India-Pakistan Water Politics
The Chenab River, a lifeline for communities in Jammu and Kashmir, is becoming a focal point in a growing water crisis between India and Pakistan. A surge in hydropower projects, coupled with the intensifying effects of climate change, is displacing communities and escalating geopolitical tensions. The story of Shama Begum, forced from her ancestral lands in Sewarbatti, illustrates the human cost of this unfolding drama.
The Hydropower Push and its Discontents
India is currently planning seven hydropower projects along the Chenab River, with four already underway, aiming to generate 5,190 megawatts of electricity. Although presented as a means to bolster energy production, these projects are dramatically altering the lives of over 20,000 people, particularly Indigenous families who depend on the river’s resources. Spring flows in the Doda basin have already decreased by 30 percent, according to community logs, a direct consequence of upstream dams like Pakal Dul disrupting natural river patterns.
The construction isn’t just impacting water availability for agriculture. Residents report structural damage to homes due to blasting, and health problems linked to pollution. Naseema Bano, another resident displaced by the projects, describes deteriorating health and a struggle for survival after being promised development that never materialized.
From Shared Resource to Strategic Asset
The shift isn’t solely about energy. Experts suggest that India is increasingly viewing water as a strategic asset, maximizing upstream control in ways that undermine Pakistan, even while remaining technically compliant with the Indus Waters Treaty. This treaty, a rare example of cooperation between the two nations, is now under strain. In 2025, India briefly declared the treaty in abeyance following a militant attack in Kashmir, prompting a warning from Pakistan that any diversion of water would be considered an act of war.
This move signaled a fundamental change: cooperation is now conditional and reversible. The Indus Waters Treaty is evolving from a confidence-building mechanism into a tool for strategic signaling, with routine engineering decisions becoming symbols of coercion. Even when projects adhere to the treaty’s stipulations, Pakistan perceives them as a means for India to control timing and flow, particularly during times of crisis.
Climate Change: A Threat Multiplier
The situation is further complicated by climate change. Melting glaciers and intensifying droughts are exacerbating water scarcity and fueling mistrust between upstream and downstream communities. As Erin Sikorsky, director of the Center for Climate and Security, notes, climate change is creating “zones of compound risk” where water scarcity, political mistrust, and historical conflict reinforce each other.
The Chenab Valley’s location in a seismically active region adds another layer of risk, raising concerns about the safety of large infrastructure projects. More than two dozen hydropower projects are planned along the Chenab and its tributaries in Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir.
The Future of Water Sharing in the Region
The current trajectory points towards increased competition and potential conflict. Experts like Josh Klemm of International Rivers emphasize the need for cooperation, information sharing, and respect for transboundary agreements. But, the prevailing atmosphere of mistrust makes such collaboration increasingly hard.
The focus on run-of-the-river projects, despite claims of limited environmental impact, is proving detrimental to the region’s ecology, triggering landslides, damaging homes, and disrupting freshwater systems. The consequences are disproportionately borne by those least able to adapt – families like Shama Begum’s, who have lost their land, livelihoods, and homes.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the Indus Waters Treaty?
A: It’s a decades-old agreement between India and Pakistan governing the sharing of the waters of the Indus River system.
Q: Why is the Chenab River important?
A: It’s a vital source of water for agriculture, livelihoods, and ecosystems in both India and Pakistan.
Q: What are “run-of-the-river” projects?
A: These hydropower projects divert a portion of the river’s flow to generate electricity, but typically have limited water storage capacity.
Q: How is climate change impacting the situation?
A: Melting glaciers and increased droughts are exacerbating water scarcity and increasing tensions between communities.
Q: What is the current status of the Indus Waters Treaty?
A: India briefly declared the treaty in abeyance in 2025, raising concerns about its future.
Did you know? The term “Chenab Valley” was first used in a 1926 journal article by Erik Norin.
Pro Tip: Understanding the geopolitical context is crucial when analyzing water resource issues in South Asia.
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