The Shifting Sands of NFL Draft Value: Why Safeties Like Caleb Downs Face an Uphill Battle
The Chicago Bears, picking 25th face a unique challenge in the 2026 NFL Draft. While the 2025 draft gifted them talents like Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III, this year’s class is considered shallower in terms of elite prospects. Only 11 players have been circled by draft experts as potential blue-chip talents, a significantly lower number than in recent years.
Positional Value: The New Draft Currency
NFL teams are increasingly prioritizing “positional value” when making draft selections. Positions deemed most impactful – quarterbacks, offensive tackles, pass rushers, and cornerbacks – command the highest draft capital. Safeties, unfortunately, don’t consistently fall into this category. Last year, only one safety, Malaki Starks, was selected in the first 32 picks, going 27th overall to Baltimore. The year prior, the first safety wasn’t drafted until the 47th pick in the second round.
This trend reflects a league-wide shift in how teams assess risk and reward. Investing a first-round pick in a safety requires a truly exceptional prospect, one who can immediately impact both run defense and pass coverage. Even highly-regarded safeties like Derwin James (selected 17th overall in 2018) haven’t always lived up to top-10 expectations.
The Athleticism Factor: A Rising Bar
Beyond positional value, athletic profiles are under intense scrutiny. While Caleb Downs has been lauded for his instincts and versatility, concerns about his “athletic ceiling” have emerged. He did not participate in the scouting combine, leaving evaluators without concrete measurables. This uncertainty is hindering his draft stock.
Players like Dillon Thieneman of Oregon, who excelled at the combine, have raised the bar for athletic expectations at the safety position. Teams increasingly favor prospects with elite speed, agility, and explosiveness. Downs is considered a quality athlete, but not necessarily elite, potentially pushing him down draft boards.
The Bears’ Dilemma: Risk vs. Reward
The Chicago Bears, under head coach Ben Johnson, have demonstrated a commitment to building through the draft. The success of rookies like Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III in 2025 underscores this strategy. However, the team must carefully weigh the potential reward of drafting a safety like Caleb Downs against the inherent risks associated with positional value and athletic uncertainty.
If Downs were to fall to the 25th pick, the Bears would face a critical decision: prioritize a potentially impactful player at a “non-premium” position, or select a player at a more valued position with a higher perceived floor.
Did you know?
The Bears secured a No. 2 seed in the 2025 playoffs, demonstrating the impact of their rookie class and the effectiveness of Ben Johnson’s coaching.
FAQ
Q: Why are safeties being drafted lower in recent years?
A: NFL teams are prioritizing positions with a greater perceived impact on the game, such as quarterback, offensive tackle, and pass rusher. Safeties are often viewed as less critical to overall team success.
Q: What is “positional value” in the NFL Draft?
A: Positional value refers to the perceived importance of a position in contributing to team wins. Positions with higher positional value are typically drafted earlier.
Q: How critical are combine results?
A: Combine results are increasingly important, as they provide objective data on a prospect’s athletic abilities. Elite athleticism can significantly boost a player’s draft stock.
Q: What impact did the injuries to DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Olamide Zaccheaus have on the Bears in 2025?
A: These injuries forced the Bears to rely more heavily on their rookies, Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland, who stepped up and contributed significantly to the team’s offense.
Pro Tip: Keep an eye on pre-draft evaluations and combine results. These factors will heavily influence a player’s draft stock and potential landing spot.
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