For years, China has supported Russia’s war against Ukraine, providing crucial purchases of weaponry and technology and serving as a major customer for Russian oil and gas. However, emerging indicators suggest this dynamic may not be sustainable indefinitely.
The Shifting Sands of Geopolitics
Experts are observing a shift in the relationship between Beijing and Moscow. Even as currently mutually beneficial, the long-term trajectory appears to favor China, potentially positioning it to dictate terms to a weakening Russia.
Keir Giles, an expert at the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, notes that “On the short term, Russia has the luxury that time is on their side in the war against Ukraine. On the longer term, It’s China that has this advantage in its relationship with Russia.” This suggests a calculated patience on China’s part, allowing Russia to expend its resources while strategically positioning itself for future gains.
China’s Strategic Advantage
Giles believes China possesses the unique ability to “sit still and wait for Russia to destroy itself, and then pick up the pieces they want.” This strategy allows China to secure discounted resources, like oil and gas, while simultaneously observing Russia’s vulnerabilities.
The power imbalance is increasingly apparent, with China as the dominant partner and Russia becoming increasingly reliant. Experts initially predicted this shift would take 10-15 years, but the war in Ukraine has expedited the process.
Economic Realities and Russia’s Dependence
Russia’s dependence on China is growing. Russia’s oil and gas revenues fell by 24% in 2025, the lowest level since 2020, according to FFI reports. This economic strain is forcing cuts in the defense budget, highlighting Russia’s vulnerability.
The strategic partnership, solidified with agreements in 2022, is largely on Beijing’s terms. While both nations benefit from the current arrangement, China holds the upper hand.
Potential Scenarios
A key concern for China, according to retired general Arne Bård Dalhaug, is the potential for regime change in Russia. A new leader in Moscow might not be as amenable to China’s interests. He draws parallels to historical figures like Josef Stalin, who did not always align with Chinese interests.
To avoid this risk, Dalhaug believes China will likely support Russia’s continued success in Ukraine, even if it means extending the conflict. This support is driven by a desire to prevent a destabilizing shift in power within Russia.
China is actively expanding its influence in other regions, including the Middle East, potentially positioning itself to fill any power vacuums created by shifts in global alliances. Dalhaug suggests China may be prepared to invest in rebuilding Iran once the US reduces its presence in the region.
Global Implications
The evolving Russia-China relationship is occurring against the backdrop of increasing competition between China and the United States. US intelligence identifies China as the biggest long-term threat to US global dominance, economically, technologically, and militarily.
China is expanding its military presence in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in the contested waters of the East and South China Seas, underscoring its ambition to reshape the regional order.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is China actively providing military aid to Russia?
Evidence suggests China has increased exports of drone components and other materials that support Russia’s military capabilities.
What are China’s primary motivations for supporting Russia?
China seeks to counter US influence, secure access to resources, and strengthen its strategic partnership with Russia.
Could China abandon Russia if its interests change?
Experts believe China will prioritize its own interests and may adjust its support for Russia if it deems necessary.
As the relationship between Russia and China continues to evolve, what impact might these shifting dynamics have on the broader global order?
