China’s Submarine Surge: A Latest Era of Naval Competition
China is rapidly expanding its submarine fleet, now launching more submarines than the United States. This shift, highlighted in a recent analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), signals a significant change in the balance of naval power in the Pacific and beyond.
From Behind to Ahead: A Dramatic Turnaround
Between 2021 and 2025, China launched 10 nuclear-powered submarines, totaling an estimated 79,000 tonnes of displacement. This contrasts sharply with the 7 submarines (55,500 tonnes) launched by the US during the same period. This represents a stark reversal from the 2016-2020 timeframe, when the US outpaced China in both numbers and tonnage.
Nuclear and Conventional Capabilities
China’s submarine buildup includes both ballistic-missile submarines (SSBNs) and attack/guided-missile submarines. As of early 2025, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) operated 12 nuclear-powered submarines – six ballistic-missile boats and six guided-missile or attack boats. The US Navy maintains a significantly larger overall submarine force with 65 total subs, including 14 ballistic-missile boats. However, China also boasts a substantial conventionally powered submarine fleet of 46 boats, while the US operates none.
The Bohai Shipbuilding Factor
The IISS analysis points to significant infrastructure investments at the Bohai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Co. (BSHIC) in Huludao, China, between 2019 and 2022 as a key driver of this increased production capacity. The company, responsible for China’s nuclear submarine fleet, doubled its manufacturing facilities during this period.
Quality vs. Quantity: A Persistent Debate
While China is increasing the quantity of its submarines, the IISS assessment suggests that Chinese submarine design “almost certainly” lags behind American and European designs in terms of quality. Chinese submarines are not believed to be as quiet as their US counterparts. However, a larger number of submarines at sea could still create increasing operational pressures for the US and its allies.
US Production Challenges and the Columbia-Class
The US is facing challenges in maintaining its submarine production pace. Recent reports indicate a growing backlog of ordered but uncompleted submarines. The construction of the US Navy’s new Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines is underway, with the first submarine approximately 65-66% complete as of early 2026, and delivery anticipated in 2028.
A Broader Trend: China’s Expanding Naval Power
China’s submarine expansion is part of a broader trend of rapid growth in its naval capabilities. In December 2024, the PLAN operated 370 warships, surpassing the US Navy in terms of ship count. This growth reflects China’s increasing military ambitions and its desire to project power in the region.
What Does This Mean for the Future?
The shift in submarine production capacity has significant implications for the future of naval competition. China’s growing submarine fleet could challenge the US’s long-held advantage in undersea warfare and potentially impact the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region. The focus on increasing production capacity suggests a long-term strategy to build a formidable submarine force capable of deterring potential adversaries and protecting China’s interests.
FAQ
Q: Does China’s submarine fleet match the US in overall capability?
A: No, the US still maintains a larger and more technologically advanced submarine fleet overall. However, China is rapidly closing the gap in terms of numbers.
Q: What type of submarines is China building?
A: China is building both ballistic-missile submarines (SSBNs) and attack/guided-missile submarines.
Q: Is China focusing solely on nuclear submarines?
A: No, China also maintains a large fleet of conventionally powered submarines.
Q: What is the significance of the BSHIC shipyard?
A: The BSHIC shipyard has undergone significant expansion, enabling China to increase its submarine production capacity.
Q: What is the Columbia-class submarine program?
A: The Columbia-class is the US Navy’s next-generation ballistic missile submarine program, designed to replace the aging Ohio-class submarines.
Did you recognize? China’s naval expansion is not limited to submarines. They are also rapidly increasing the size and capabilities of their surface fleet, including aircraft carriers and destroyers.
Pro Tip: Understanding the strategic implications of submarine warfare is crucial for assessing the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific region.
Explore further: Read more about the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and their analysis of global military trends.
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