The Shifting Global Order: Will China Overtake the US by 2035?
A new prediction from a leading Chinese political scientist suggests the world is on the cusp of a significant power shift. Yan Xuetong, honorary dean of Tsinghua University’s Institute of International Relations, argues in his new book, Inflection of History: International Configuration and Order 2025-2035, that the United States is likely to lose its dominant position in global strategic relations to China by 2035.
The Rise of Issue-Based Alignment
Yan’s analysis doesn’t foresee a complete dismantling of US influence, but rather a move towards a more fragmented world order. He predicts a future where nations will increasingly pick sides on specific issues, rather than aligning firmly with either Washington or Beijing. This “issue-based side-picking,” as he terms it, will become the norm. Think of it like a global à la carte menu – countries choosing what best suits their needs on a case-by-case basis.
This is already subtly visible. For example, Germany’s continued economic ties with China despite political pressure from the US demonstrate a willingness to prioritize economic interests. Similarly, Brazil’s neutral stance on the Ukraine conflict highlights a desire to maintain relationships with both Russia and the West. These aren’t necessarily pro-China moves, but they illustrate a growing independence from traditional US-led alliances.
Key Relationships: Where the Lines are Blurring
Yan’s book specifically highlights several key relationships that are expected to shift. By 2035, he anticipates:
- Brazil & Russia: These nations will forge stronger strategic bonds with China than with the US. This is driven by shared economic interests, particularly within the BRICS economic bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa).
- Germany & France: These European powerhouses will adopt a more neutral stance, carefully balancing their relationships with both the US and China. Their focus will likely be on protecting their economic interests and maintaining strategic autonomy.
- India, Japan & Britain: While these countries will maintain closer ties with the US, their commitment to actively participating in a US-led containment strategy of China is expected to wane. This is partly due to economic realities – all three have significant trade relationships with China.
Did you know? The BRICS nations represent over 40% of the world’s population and approximately 26% of the world’s economic output. Their growing influence is a key factor in the shifting global landscape.
The Trump Factor and Beyond
Interestingly, Yan predicts that strategic competition between the US and China will likely be most intense during a potential second Trump administration. However, he believes the risk of direct military conflict will decrease under subsequent administrations. This suggests a belief that Trump’s more unpredictable and confrontational approach increases the potential for miscalculation, while more conventional US foreign policy might prioritize stability.
Implications for US Foreign Policy
This predicted shift presents significant challenges for US foreign policy. A world where allies are less willing to automatically align with Washington requires a new approach. The US will need to focus on strengthening its own economic competitiveness, investing in technological innovation, and building more flexible and issue-specific alliances. Simply relying on traditional military alliances and a “with us or against us” mentality will likely prove ineffective.
Pro Tip: Understanding the concept of “strategic autonomy” is crucial for interpreting the actions of many nations. Countries are increasingly prioritizing their own interests and seeking to avoid becoming overly reliant on any single superpower.
The Role of Economic Interdependence
The increasing economic interdependence between nations is a major driver of this shift. China’s Belt and Road Initiative, for example, has created significant economic ties with countries across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. These ties provide China with economic leverage and influence, making it a more attractive partner for many nations. According to the World Bank, the Belt and Road Initiative could boost global trade by as much as 15%.
FAQ
- Q: Is this prediction inevitable?
A: No. Yan Xuetong’s analysis is a prediction based on current trends. Geopolitical events and policy changes could alter the trajectory. - Q: What does “issue-based side-picking” mean?
A: It means countries will support either the US or China depending on the specific issue at hand, rather than having a blanket allegiance to one side. - Q: Will the US become irrelevant?
A: Not necessarily. The US will remain a major superpower, but its dominance will likely be challenged by China. - Q: What is the BRICS economic bloc?
A: BRICS is an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. It represents a growing economic force in the world.
Reader Question: “How will climate change affect this power dynamic?” Climate change is likely to exacerbate existing tensions and create new areas of competition and cooperation between the US and China. Both countries are major emitters, and their actions will be crucial in addressing this global challenge.
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