China’s Energy Security at Risk as Middle East Conflict Escalates
More than half of the oil China imports comes from countries currently facing trade disruptions due to the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. This single statistic underscores why Beijing is observing the escalating military situation in the Persian Gulf and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz with growing concern. An analysis published by Politico, based on data from research firm Kpler, highlights China’s vulnerability.
Iran: A Critical Oil Supplier to China
Iran was China’s second-largest oil supplier last year, trailing only Saudi Arabia. In 2025, China received 520 million barrels of Iranian crude, a figure more than tripling its imports from Venezuela. Combined, Iran and Venezuela accounted for 17% of China’s total oil purchases, making China virtually the sole buyer for both countries, which are heavily sanctioned by Washington.
Trump Administration’s Impact on China’s Supply
In just two months, the Trump administration has destabilized two major suppliers that shared China as their primary crude oil customer. First, Venezuela, with actions against Nicolás Maduro, and now Iran, following the joint strikes with Israel. President Trump did not mention Iranian oil in his announcement of the attacks, unlike his comments regarding Venezuela.
The Strait of Hormuz: A Chokepoint for China’s Oil
Kpler data illustrates China’s energy vulnerability. In 2025, Saudi Arabia was its top provider with 1.5 million barrels per day, closely followed by Iran with 1.4 million, Russia and Iraq with 1.2 million each, and Brazil with 893,300 barrels. China imported over 5 million barrels daily through the Strait of Hormuz last year, sourced from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Oman.
Growing Iranian Dependence
Historical trends reveal a concerning pattern for Beijing: Iran’s share of China’s import basket grew from 6.7% in 2013 to 13.5% in 2025, peaking at 14.4% in 2024, while the combined dependence on the Gulf countries – including those transiting through Hormuz – remained around 50% of total imports during the last decade. Venezuela represented only 3.8% in 2025, a significant decline from its historical weight in the mid-2010s.
China’s Response and Energy Security
Recognizing the magnitude of its energy exposure, Beijing has responded. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated that China will seize necessary measures to ensure its energy security and called on “all parties” to ensure a stable and fluid energy supply. Beijing reiterated its opposition to the use of force violating the sovereignty and security of other countries. The Ministry had already expressed “great concern” over the attacks on Iran and demanded a cessation of hostilities.
Risks Beyond Oil: The Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway controlled by Tehran, presents another significant risk. In 2025, China received approximately half of its imported oil from the six Gulf countries reliant on the strait for their exports, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates. While Saudi Arabia and the UAE have alternative land routes, these can only absorb a fraction of their usual export volume. Qatar’s production of natural gas is also heavily dependent on a shared marine field with Iran.
Since the start of the attacks, ships have begun avoiding the strait. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard warned ships not to transit the strait and has previously attacked tankers. Disruptions have also extended to other routes, with some ships rerouting from the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as a precaution.
Potential Solutions and Market Impact
A likely response from Beijing could be to deepen its dependence on Russian crude. According to Kpler, China was already reducing its imports of Iranian crude throughout 2026, replacing it with Russian oil, even before the conflict began.
The impact extends beyond China. India is the second-largest importer of oil from Iran and its Gulf neighbors, while other smaller Asian countries obtain almost all their crude from the region. Competition for available barrels threatens to drive up prices across the continent.
Markets have already reacted. Brent crude opened Sunday night at $81.57 per barrel, a 12% jump from the previous week’s close. It continued to rise Tuesday, exceeding $82, marking the third consecutive day of crude price increases. The Brent price surged over 13% on Monday following the initial attacks.
The OPEC+ countries announced Sunday they would increase production by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, in an attempt to mitigate the impact. However, analysts warn this increase will have a limited effect if the conflict persists.
FAQ
Q: How much oil does China import from the Middle East?
A: Over 5 million barrels per day in 2025 came through the Strait of Hormuz, originating from countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq.
Q: What is China doing to address the situation?
A: China is seeking to ensure its energy security and has called for a stable energy supply, while also urging all parties to de-escalate the conflict.
Q: Could this conflict lead to higher oil prices globally?
A: Yes, increased competition for oil and potential disruptions to supply routes could drive up prices worldwide.
Q: Is China increasing its reliance on Russian oil?
A: Yes, China was already increasing its imports of Russian crude before the recent conflict, and this trend may continue.
