The recent removal of two high-ranking Chinese generals, Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, has prompted a renewed focus on “Pekingology”—the practice of analyzing Chinese politics through close scrutiny of words and images. This approach, popular during the Cold War, is gaining traction as the political landscape under Xi Jinping becomes increasingly opaque.
A Return to Scrutiny
The first signs of trouble for Generals Zhang and Liu emerged when they were absent from a televised report on a recent Communist Party meeting. Four days later, the Ministry of Defense announced an investigation into their conduct. Some analysts even suggest earlier clues existed, noting that General Zhang appeared to turn his back on Xi Jinping at the conclusion of a speech nearly a year prior.
According to reports, the generals are accused of “gravely trampling” on the system that grants Xi Jinping supreme authority over the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Many observers interpret this as an attempt to undermine Xi’s leadership.
The Challenge of Interpretation
The resurgence of Pekingology reflects a growing difficulty in understanding Chinese politics. Prior to Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power, analysts had greater access to intermediaries and could triangulate information from various factions within the Communist Party. Now, with power concentrated in one person, external observers have fewer reliable sources.
However, this method of analysis is not without its pitfalls. With limited information, it’s easy to draw unsupported conclusions. For example, one analysis suggests General Zhang’s removal stemmed from failing to prepare the PLA for a potential invasion of Taiwan, while others point to the dismissal of another general last year who *had* overseen intense military exercises near the island.
The difficulty in verifying interpretations is compounded by the proliferation of speculation on social media and within Chinese expatriate communities. The opacity of the Chinese government means that definitive answers may not be available for decades, if ever.
Visual Clues and Past Missteps
Even visual cues are subject to interpretation. The incident in 2022 where former leader Hu Jintao was escorted from a party meeting sparked speculation of internal divisions, though state media attributed his departure to health concerns. Wu Guoguang, a former government official and journalist, recounts his own past misinterpretations, highlighting the dangers of “overinterpretation” based on superficial information.
Despite these challenges, analysts emphasize the importance of focusing on subtle shifts in language. The recent charges against Generals Zhang and Liu involved violations of law, a more serious accusation than the disciplinary infractions cited in previous military purges. This, some experts believe, indicates Xi Jinping views their actions as a more significant threat.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Pekingology?
Pekingology is the practice of analyzing Chinese politics through the careful examination of words, images, and subtle cues, a method that gained prominence during the Cold War.
Why are analysts returning to Pekingology now?
Analysts are returning to Pekingology because the political landscape under Xi Jinping has become more opaque, making it harder to gain information through traditional channels.
What are the limitations of Pekingology?
Pekingology is prone to misinterpretation due to the limited amount of visible information and the temptation to draw unsupported conclusions. It is also difficult to verify the accuracy of interpretations.
As the analysis of China’s political landscape becomes increasingly reliant on interpreting subtle signals, it’s crucial to remember that these observations raise questions, even if they don’t provide definitive answers. What does this renewed focus on detail tell us about the current state of political transparency in China?
