WASHINGTON — A confidential CIA assessment warned President Trump that supporting Venezuela’s democratic opposition following the removal of President Nicolás Maduro could lead to wider conflict in the country. The assessment was commissioned by the White House prior to the authorization of “Operation Absolute Resolve,” the U.S. mission that resulted in Maduro’s seizure over the weekend.
A Shift in Strategy
Following the operation, President Trump surprised many by dismissing the leadership of the democratic opposition, specifically Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado and 2024 presidential election winner Edmundo González Urrutia. Instead, the administration announced it would work with Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s vice president, who has now been appointed as the country’s interim president. The remainder of Maduro’s government remains in place.
Officials indicated the decision to work with existing government structures was informed by lessons learned from the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Specifically, the administration aimed to avoid repeating what is known as “de-Baathification”—the exclusion of Saddam Hussein’s party loyalists from the interim government—which contributed to armed resistance.
Limited Intelligence Sharing
The CIA assessment was reportedly not widely shared within the U.S. intelligence community. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard was largely absent from deliberations and has not yet publicly commented on the operation, despite the deployment of CIA operatives. The core team involved in planning “Operation Absolute Resolve” included Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe, who met frequently over several months.
There are indications that Trump’s team had prior communication with Rodríguez, though the president has denied providing her with advance notice of Maduro’s removal. Evan Ellis, a former State Department policy planner, suggested a “cynical calculation” may have been at play, prioritizing pragmatism over ideological alignment. Rodríguez previously served as a point of contact for both the Biden and Trump administrations.
What Could Happen Next
The situation in Venezuela remains highly fluid. It is possible that the current arrangement with Rodríguez could lead to a period of relative stability, though her public statements offer a mixed message, vowing to resist American influence while simultaneously suggesting collaboration. A challenge to Rodríguez’s authority from within the military or from the opposition, led by figures like Machado, is also possible. Machado, who has yet to speak with President Trump, has expressed hope for a democratic transition and intends to return to Venezuela.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the purpose of Operation Absolute Resolve?
Operation Absolute Resolve was a U.S. mission that resulted in the seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife.
Why did President Trump choose to work with Delcy Rodríguez?
The administration chose to work with Rodríguez, Maduro’s vice president, after a CIA assessment warned of wider conflict if the democratic opposition was supported following Maduro’s removal.
Was the intelligence assessment shared widely?
No, the CIA assessment was a tightly held product and was not shared across the 18 agencies that make up the U.S. intelligence community.
Given the complex political landscape and the potential for instability, what role will international actors, such as Russia, China, and Iran, play in Venezuela’s future?
