The Return of Big Government and Economic Intervention

2025 witnessed a subtle but significant shift: a renewed appetite for state intervention in the economy. The echoes of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), once relegated to academic circles, are now resonating in policy debates. This isn’t a wholesale embrace of MMT, but a willingness to consider more active fiscal policy, particularly in addressing structural inequalities and funding green initiatives. Expect this trend to accelerate, with governments increasingly comfortable deploying public funds to stimulate specific sectors and achieve social goals. The recent focus on industrial strategy, particularly in green technologies, is a prime example. Data from the Office for National Statistics shows a 15% increase in government investment in renewable energy projects in the last quarter of 2025.

The Digital ID Dilemma: Surveillance vs. Security

The debate surrounding digital ID schemes reached fever pitch in 2025. While proponents tout enhanced security and streamlined public services, concerns about privacy and state surveillance remain paramount. The UK isn’t alone; similar debates are unfolding across Europe and North America. The key battleground will be data governance – who controls the data, how it’s used, and what safeguards are in place to prevent abuse. Expect increased regulation and a push for decentralized identity solutions that empower individuals to control their own data. The recent EU Digital Identity Framework is a significant step in this direction, and the UK will likely follow suit with its own legislation.

The Rise of Populist Protests and Direct Action

The tractor protests lining Whitehall weren’t an isolated incident. They represent a growing trend of direct action and populist discontent. Frustration with perceived political elites, economic inequality, and environmental concerns is fueling these movements. Expect more disruptive protests and a greater willingness to challenge the status quo. This isn’t limited to rural communities; urban areas are also seeing a surge in activism, particularly around issues like housing affordability and climate change. Social media plays a crucial role in organizing and amplifying these movements.

Policy U-Turns and the Erosion of Trust

2025 was marked by a series of high-profile policy U-turns, further eroding public trust in politicians. This volatility stems from a combination of factors: complex economic challenges, political pressures, and a lack of long-term planning. The “six-seven” incident, while seemingly trivial, symbolizes a broader disconnect between the political class and the public. To regain trust, governments need to prioritize transparency, evidence-based policymaking, and genuine engagement with citizens. The increasing use of citizen assemblies and deliberative democracy initiatives is a promising sign.

The Welfare-Warfare State: A Troubling Convergence?

The Labour government’s attempt to shift resources from welfare to defense – dubbed the “welfare-warfare state” – sparked a fierce debate about national priorities. This reflects a growing tension between social spending and national security concerns. Geopolitical instability and the rising cost of defense are putting pressure on public finances, forcing difficult choices. Expect this trade-off to become more pronounced in the years ahead, with potential implications for social programs and public services. A recent report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies highlights the growing budgetary pressures facing the UK.

The Future of Brexit: Navigating a New Normal

Despite ongoing debates, Brexit has entered a phase of pragmatic adaptation. The focus has shifted from renegotiating the terms of the agreement to managing its consequences and forging new trade relationships. Kemi Badenoch’s misstatement regarding Northern Ireland’s voting record underscores the complexities of navigating this new reality. Expect a continued emphasis on securing trade deals with countries outside the EU and addressing the economic challenges facing specific sectors. The long-term impact of Brexit on the UK economy remains uncertain, but a more realistic and nuanced assessment is emerging.

The Impact of AI and Automation on the Political Landscape

Artificial intelligence (AI) and automation are poised to reshape the political landscape in profound ways. From personalized political advertising to automated policy analysis, AI is already influencing how campaigns are run and decisions are made. However, the potential for misuse – including the spread of disinformation and the manipulation of public opinion – is a serious concern. Expect increased regulation of AI-powered political tools and a growing focus on digital literacy and media awareness.