The latest Closing the Gap data reveals a troubling trend of worsening outcomes for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people across several key areas, prompting calls for stronger action from the federal government. Advocates are urging policy changes nationwide, with some suggesting financial penalties for states and territories failing to meet established targets.
Key Findings
Of the 17 socio-economic outcome areas measured by the National Agreement on Closing the Gap, only three are currently on track to be achieved by the 2031 deadline. Five areas show some improvement, but are not projected to meet their goals. Critically, outcomes related to suicide rates, children in out-of-home care, and incarceration are all deteriorating.
The rate of suicide among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people rose to 33.9 per 100,000 people in 2024, marking the highest rate since the baseline measurement in 2018. Incarceration rates have also increased, reaching 2.5 per cent of the adult population as of June 2025 – a deterioration from the 2019 baseline of 1.9 per cent. The Northern Territory experienced the steepest increase in adult incarceration rates.
Deteriorating Outcomes for Children
Outcomes for children are particularly concerning. While 94 per cent of Indigenous children are enrolled in preschool, on track for the 2025 target of 95 per cent, every other target relating to children and young people is either stagnant or worsening. The number of children in out-of-home care has increased to 5.03 per cent, moving further away from the 2031 target of 2.1 per cent.
Nerita Waight, Acting Chair of NATSILS, stated that the figures are a “natural consequence of policy changes around the country,” questioning when state and territory governments will recognize that over-policing and increased incarceration are detrimental to communities. Catherine Liddle, CEO of SNAICC, emphasized that investment in Aboriginal controlled organisations is “the missing piece of the puzzle.”
Federal Minister for Indigenous Australians, Malarndirri McCarthy, previously indicated the possibility of penalties for jurisdictions failing to make progress. Independent Senator Lidia Thorpe has called on the government to follow through on this threat, arguing that the current framework lacks enforceability and accountability.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Closing the Gap agreement?
The National Agreement on Closing the Gap sets targets for improvement in the lives of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, aiming to be realized by 2031.
Which outcome areas are currently on track?
Only three of the 17 socio-economic outcome areas are on track to meet their 2031 targets.
What is being proposed to address the lack of progress?
Advocates are urging the federal government to consider altering funding arrangements and imposing financial penalties on states and territories that do not proactively improve outcomes.
As the data underscores the need for state and territory governments to take action, what steps will be taken to ensure accountability and drive meaningful change for First Nations communities?
