The Colorado River’s journey begins in the crystal‑clear, snow‑fed streams of the Rocky Mountains, then flows south to become the lifeblood of the West, delivering water to tens of millions, fueling industry and irrigating crops.
This winter the basin is experiencing a snow drought – the mountains hold only about half the snow they normally should, marking one of the driest and warmest winters on record.
Forecasters expect a brief uptick in snowfall in the coming weeks, but the Upper Colorado Basin’s snowpack remains at December levels instead of the expected February depth, meaning spring runoff will likely be reduced.
Implications for the Seven‑State Water Deal
The shortage compounds the challenges faced by the seven states that are still negotiating how to share a river that has been shrinking for decades.
Lake Powell, the nation’s second‑largest reservoir, is dangerously low at just 26 % capacity. Further downstream, Lake Mead—America’s largest reservoir—holds a little over one‑third of its capacity. Both reservoirs generate hydropower and store water critical to the Southwest’s economy.
The 1922 Colorado River Compact apportioned 7.5 million acre‑feet of water each year to the four Upper Basin states (Colorado, Modern Mexico, Utah, Wyoming) and the same amount to the three Lower Basin states (California, Arizona, Nevada). By year‑end, the states will have to manage with less water than the compact guarantees.
The basin is “staring down water ‘Armageddon,’” and a source close to the talks says a deal is “impossible at this juncture.” Experts warn that each day without an agreement raises the odds of interstate lawsuits.
Negotiations have long been divided: the three Lower Basin states form one camp, while the four Upper Basin states form the other.
If Powell and Mead fall below certain thresholds, the Lower Basin states could face mandatory water cuts.
The Lower Basin historically consumes the most water, supporting large farms in southern California and Arizona and major cities such as Phoenix, Los Angeles and Las Vegas. Recently, those states have been seeking cuts and urging a shared sacrifice across all seven states.
Upper Basin states have historically used less water, and the federal government lacks legal authority to compel them to reduce usage.
Despite offers from the Lower Basin to cut usage further if all states share the burden, the Upper Basin has resisted mandatory cuts, arguing that climate‑driven reductions already limit water availability and that the more water‑intensive southern states should curtail use.
“The big stumbling block is the refusal of the upper basin to participate in cuts,” said Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University.
Meanwhile, a separate dispute centers on three Upper Basin reservoirs—Flaming Gorge, Blue Mesa and Navajo—that could help refill Powell. An initial 500,000 acre‑feet release is planned, but Arizona is pushing for up to 2.5 million acre‑feet over five years, eventually routing some water to Mead.
“We’re not trying to drain those upper basin reservoirs into the mud,” said Tom Buschatzke, Arizona’s lead Colorado River negotiator and director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources, emphasizing the need to retain some volume for unexpected events.
Upper Basin leaders remain skeptical. “If the water is not there, it can’t be released,” warned Chuck Cullom, executive director of the Upper Colorado River Commission, stressing the necessity of operating with actual water supplies.
While Interior Secretary Doug Burgum has set a February 14 deadline, the real deadline arrives this summer when federal water managers must decide how much water can be sent downstream.
If no agreement emerges by then, litigation appears to be the most likely outcome.
Arizona is the most vulnerable state to future cuts, tied to a 1960s agreement that subjects it to the largest reductions during shortages. At the same time, its water demand is rising as desert farming, semiconductor manufacturing and data centers expand.
Due to the fact that of this vulnerability, Arizona may view court action as a preferable path, according to Porter.
“All the cuts hurt, but the cuts to Arizona hurt the most,” Porter added, noting that the state will reject any deal that doesn’t improve its position over litigation.
California, the largest water user among the seven states, is an anomaly this year—its first completely drought‑free year in 25 years. However, the minimal Colorado snowpack still threatens the overall water picture.
Recent water cuts that helped raise Lake Mead’s level could be erased by this dry year.
“If this year is dry, that means despite our record conservation, Lake Mead will drop to really low levels,” said Bill Hasencamp, manager of Colorado River Resources for the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, which supplies Los Angeles.
“Everyone is really worried,” Hasencamp added.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the Colorado River experiencing a snow drought this year?
The basin has only about half the usual snowfall, making it one of the driest and warmest winters on record, which has left the Upper Colorado Basin’s snowpack at December levels instead of the expected February depth.
How low are Lake Powell and Lake Mead currently?
Lake Powell sits at just 26 % of its capacity, while Lake Mead is a little over one‑third full.
What does the 1922 Colorado River Compact allocate to each basin?
The compact assigns 7.5 million acre‑feet of water annually to the four Upper Basin states and another 7.5 million acre‑feet to the three Lower Basin states.
What do you consider the next steps should be for the seven states facing this water crisis?
