Bitcoin’s Next Move: Expert Warns of Potential Dip to $40,000
The cryptocurrency market remains volatile, but according to Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures, the current trajectory isn’t unexpected. Speaking at Consensus Hong Kong 2026, Terpin suggested that recent optimism regarding a market bottom may be premature, and Bitcoin could revisit the $40,000s before a sustained recovery takes hold.
The Four-Year Halving Cycle: A Reliable Indicator?
Terpin’s analysis centers around Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle. This event, integral to Bitcoin’s design, reduces the reward miners receive for validating transactions, effectively slowing the rate at which new coins are created. Historically, this reduction in supply has preceded significant bull markets as demand remains constant or increases.
“We are exactly where we should be,” Terpin stated, emphasizing the reliability of this cycle. He pointed to the timing of the recent bull market peak, which occurred in the fourth quarter following the halving, mirroring previous cycles. The subsequent speculative blow-off phase typically lasts nine to eleven months, and this cycle followed that pattern with an eleven-month duration.
Why Optimism May Be Misplaced
Terpin expressed skepticism towards predictions of a quick recovery, dismissing calls for a bottom at $80,000 or $60,000 as “ridiculous” and “a little too soon,” respectively. He believes the market is in a “fragile environment” and anticipates “one more point of pain” before a durable bottom is established.
He drew parallels to the 2021-2022 cycle, noting the similarity in timing between the peak on November 10, 2021, and the lows following FTX’s bankruptcy on November 10, 2022 – a difference of exactly one year.
What Does This Mean for Investors?
Terpin’s analysis suggests that investors should brace for potential further downside. While he didn’t forecast a year-long drawdown, the possibility of Bitcoin revisiting the $50,000s or even the $40,000s should be considered. This perspective challenges the narrative of a swift rebound and encourages a more cautious approach.
Pro Tip: Diversification remains a key strategy in navigating the volatile cryptocurrency market. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.
Understanding the Halving Mechanism
The halving process is fundamental to Bitcoin’s scarcity. By capping the total supply at 21 million coins, it reinforces Bitcoin’s positioning as a digital store of value. This built-in scarcity is a core component of its value proposition, driving demand and potentially leading to price appreciation over the long term.
FAQ
Q: What is the Bitcoin halving?
A: It’s an event that happens roughly every four years where the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks is cut in half, reducing the rate of new coin creation.
Q: Why is the halving critical?
A: It reinforces Bitcoin’s scarcity, historically leading to increased demand and potential price increases.
Q: What price level does Terpin predict as a potential bottom?
A: He suggests Bitcoin could revisit levels in the $50,000s or even the $40,000s.
Q: Is this a guaranteed prediction?
A: Terpin stopped short of a firm forecast, but believes these levels are possible based on historical patterns.
Did you grasp? The first Bitcoin halving occurred in November 2012, reducing the block reward from 50 BTC to 25 BTC.
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