Cuba is facing widespread power outages, affecting 53% of the country during peak hours, as a month-long “oil siege” by Washington contributes to a growing humanitarian crisis, political uncertainty, and reports of discreet bilateral contacts.
Gas stations are empty, hospitals lack medicine and are suspending basic treatments and operations, public transportation has ceased, food prices have skyrocketed, and universities and public offices are operating remotely, similar to conditions during the pandemic. The army has been called upon to collect mountains of garbage from the streets, though communal services have recently been reactivated in Havana.
Francisco Pichón, the UN Resident Coordinator in Cuba, warned this week of the risk of a “humanitarian crisis” on the island. Völker Turk, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, stated that the blockade, which his department deemed contrary to international law, is “pushing the country to the brink of collapse.”
Hotels and Minerals Freeze
The paralysis affects all sectors. Large hotel chains, such as the Spanish Meliá and Iberostar, have closed facilities, and the Canadian mining company Sherritt, the largest foreign investment on the island, has halted its nickel and cobalt extraction operations due to a lack of fuel.
A survey by the Cuban firm AUGE estimates that one month after the start of the oil siege, 78% of small and medium-sized private Cuban businesses “report falls in their sales.” The impact is “systemic.”
Cuban energy expert Jorge Piñón, from the University of Texas’s Energy Institute, explained to EFE that if no more oil enters Cuba, the island would exhaust its strategic reserves this March and enter a “grave crisis.” Since then, only one tanker from abroad has arrived at Cuban ports.
Several countries have begun sending humanitarian aid to the island, led by Mexico, which delivered its second shipment of 1,200 tons of food to Havana on Saturday. Canada, Chile, and Spain have also shown solidarity.
Alongside these developments, the U.S. Took a couple of measures this week that open a path for fuel to enter, albeit in small quantities and only for the private sector, which provides some relief but does not solve the crisis.
Cuba produces only enough oil to meet a third of its energy needs. This domestic crude, however, is not refined and is only used for thermoelectric plants, not for generators or distributed generation, which are paralyzed with a capacity of 1000 MW due to a lack of diesel and fuel oil.
This scenario coincided with significant statements by Marco Rubio, who spoke of the “path forward” regarding Cuba during the 50th Ordinary Meeting of the Conference of Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM).
“If [Cuban authorities] desire to carry out those drastic reforms that open up space for economic and, political freedom for the Cuban people, obviously the United States would love to witness that,” added the U.S. Diplomat.
“The Trump administration wants to encourage the Cuban government to undertake changes that allow private enterprise to flourish,” a senior U.S. Official told The New York Times, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“Although initial oil shipments to Cuba are modest, experts say the Trump administration is sending a message to the island’s government that cooperation with the United States is necessary to acquire out of the country’s economic hardship,” the Times added.
The newspaper cited Ricardo Herrero, executive director of the Cuba Study Group, a non-partisan policy and advocacy organization in Washington. “The strategy is to show Cubans and the world that the only lifeline left to Cuba is the United States. That doesn’t mean drowning them. It means making it clear that they have become a de facto dependency of the United States.”
EFE confirmed that the first diesel tankers from abroad—mainly from Miami (USA), but also from Mexico and Colombia—have arrived on the island or are en route, imported by small Cuban private companies.
Armed Incident
Cuban Border Troops shot and killed four people on Wednesday who had entered Cuban territorial waters in a speedboat and opened fire on officials when they were signaled to identify themselves. Havana described this as an “attempted infiltration for terrorist purposes.”
The boat, registered in Florida (USA), was carrying ten Cuban-Americans (the other six were injured in the exchange of fire), according to Cuban authorities, who said they found 14 assault rifles, 11 pistols, and nearly 13,000 bullets on board, as well as other military equipment.
Despite the potentially destabilizing incident, the U.S. Administration has responded with moderation and indicated that it wants to clarify the incident independently, something that several international analysts have highlighted.
Contacts and Diplomacy
Recent weeks have also been marked by exclusive reports in the U.S. Media outlets Axios and Miami Herald about contacts between Rubio and Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, a grandson of former Cuban President Raúl Castro, involving discussions about the future, possible gradual economic reforms on the island, and a phased withdrawal of sanctions.
This would confirm repeated statements by U.S. President Donald Trump about negotiations with Cuban authorities, even though the Cuban government has not confirmed the contacts (and has denied them on several occasions).
Several analysts consulted by EFE believe these exchanges are true, although others doubt that this grandson of Raúl Castro, in charge of his grandfather’s personal security, is the one representing the Cuban government despite holding no institutional position.
Meanwhile, on Saturday, Pope Leo XIV received Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez in audience, who also held separate talks with the Holy See’s Secretary for Relations with States, Pietro Parolin.
The Vatican’s diligent efforts and contributions, especially during the papacy of Francis, are known in the “thaw” between Havana and Washington during the Obama administration.
On this occasion, the Bishop of Rome referred to the seriousness of the situation and invited all leaders to “promote a sincere and effective dialogue, on equal sovereignty and mutual respect to avoid violence and any action that could increase the suffering of the beloved Cuban people.”
On the same Saturday, the head of the U.S. Diplomatic mission in Havana, Mike Hammer, met with Parolin at the Vatican, in a meeting also attended by Brian Burch, U.S. Ambassador to the Holy See.
The simultaneity of both meetings places the Vatican as one of the axes of diplomatic interactions between Washington and Havana.
The possibility of contacts, however, does not necessarily mean that the U.S. And Cuba will launch a formal negotiating table and reach an agreement to ease the pressure from Washington. It does not even completely rule out the military option on the island, as demonstrated by the cases of Venezuela and Iran, noted the EFE agency in its dispatch.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current state of power outages in Cuba?
Power outages are affecting 53% of Cuba during peak hours, with a maximum historical cut reaching 64% of the island.
What is the cause of the current crisis in Cuba?
The crisis is attributed to a combination of factors, including a lack of maintenance in the electrical sector and an “oil siege” imposed by the U.S. Government.
What international aid has Cuba received?
Mexico has delivered two shipments of 1,200 tons of food, and Canada, Chile, and Spain have also shown solidarity.
As Cuba navigates this complex situation, what role might international diplomacy play in alleviating the humanitarian crisis and fostering a path toward stability?
